Using Tamara results for cost and financial risk analysis

You can use the simulated data from Tamara within an Excel spreadsheet model with Vose Software’s ModelRisk add-in for Excel.

First select the tasks for which you want the outputs (start date, finish date, and/or duration) in the Task Overview tab, Main View window by checking the relevant boxes in the column Output at the far right:

Then navigate to the Results tab, which will prompt Tamara to run a simulation if one has not yet been completed. Click the Save SID icon:

This will open a dialog in which you can select the information you wish to include in the exported simulation data:

By default, Tamara has the Task Start, Task Finish and Task Duration options selected. Tamara will save the files in the same location as the .tam project file has been stored.

SID stands for Simulation Imported Data. Tamara will create a directory in the selected folder. That folder contains a number of files, depending on the options you have selected. In the following image, SID files have been created for each output’s duration, and finish and start dates:

Next open your copy of ModelRisk (Industrial Edition). Select the ModelRisk ribbon (1), click on the Library icon (2), select the SID tab (3) and then the Import new SID icon (4) or click the Insert button on the bottom of the interface:

Navigate to the directory in which you stored the SID files, select one of the files, and click Open:

The file will now appear in the list of available SID files:

Next, select the SID from the list and click Insert at the bottom of the screen. This will open a prompt asking you to highlight a cell range in which you wish to place the data:

A VoseSID function is then added to the spreadsheet. This array function covers two columns (one for the name of the task, the other for the duration in days), recalling values from the selected SID file:

If you hit the F9 key (spreadsheet recalculate) you will see the numbers change. The Vose SID function is randomly sampling one of the (in this case, 10000) scenarios generated by Tamara. You can add one or both of the other project SID files (start or finish time) to the model as well using the same procedure.

A cashflow model can now be built. For example, a daily rate has been added to each of the tasks and an output created from the sum of the costs in the following model:

Running this model will give an uncertain estimate of the cost of the project. Here the result is shown in ModelRisk’s Results Viewer:

Models of essentially any complexity can be built with ModelRisk. For example, you can develop a model to incorporate the financial structure of the project, penalty payments for delays, cash outlay over time, revenue streams for milestones payments, and a discounted cashflow model of the entire investment. Vose Software consultants have a wealth of experience in building such models and can assist you if required.

 

Updating the model

As the project plan changes, or the uncertainty and risk events assigned to the project change, you will probably want to update the SID files used in your ModelRisk model. The procedure is simple:

  • Run the updated model in Tamara, and place the SID files in the same location as the original ones;

  • In ModelRisk, go to the SID tab in the Library window, select the old SID(s) and click on the Update icon;

  • Open the ModelRisk model that uses these SIDs and rerun.

 

ModelRisk

Monte Carlo simulation in Excel. Learn more

Tamara

Adding risk and uncertainty to your project schedule. Learn more

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