Subject Matter Expert (SME) Time Series Forecasts

ModelRisk provides several tools for modeling forecasts over a number of periods based on expert estimates.

These tools have the intuitive appeal of being flexible, easy to use and are not based on complex mathematical models.

The tools are displayed in the Subject Matter Expert Time Series window which is accessed from the Time Series drop-down menu by selecting ‘SME time series’, which opens the following interface:

The models available are listed below. Each link provides a detailed description of the model:

Poisson: for modeling events that occur randomly in time

2Perc: for modeling with estimates based on upper and lower percentiles

Three Point: for modeling with estimates based on minimum, most likely and maximum values

Uniform: for modeling with estimates based on minimum and maximum values

Saturation: for modeling ‘buy-in’ from a fixed population base

 

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