Risk analysis consultingModels that stand up to scrutiny

Models without uncertainty often contain important errors. Monte Carlo models are even more prone to them: the numbers keep changing, the model has to allow for that, and probability calculations are easy to get wrong. Risk models can also be slow, or fail to give the decision-maker the information that matters.

What we review

Your current model, your planned modelling approach, or the way the results are presented.

When it helps

Before a report goes out to public review, supports a critical decision, or faces a potentially hostile audience.

If you don’t have the time or the risk analysis expertise in-house, or the model has to stand up to very heavy scrutiny, we build it for you.

What you get

An expert risk analysis model, with documentation and presentation material.

How it starts

With your NDA and one or two scoping calls, as set out below.

We act as expert witnesses, undertake research, organise teams of experts and help with litigation strategy. Experience and the neutrality of a consultancy let us explain complex risk analysis in simple terms to a judge or jury.

Our record

Expert evidence or key risk advice in international cases, including a WTO trade dispute, US and Australian federal courts and London arbitration.

Before we agree

We first look into the risk-based argument you want to put before the court, and we may withdraw if we cannot support it. Our opinion has to be honest and unbiased.

In large companies, small groups often develop their own ways of assessing risk. These rarely add up to one methodology, so some risks go unassessed, results can’t be compared, and senior management lacks the overview it needs to manage risk, or to show investors and regulators that it does.

What we design

A methodology that builds on the risk work you already do, and is flexible, easy to use, sustainable, consistent and comprehensive.

How it runs

A senior management discussion of risk appetite, governance, current risk work, gaps and problems. Then a review of current analyses with your managers and analysts, and a proposal, made with your stakeholders, for risk identification, analysis, communication, management and reporting that can be put in place quickly and cost-effectively.