About Vose Software
Vose Software makes ModelRisk, Tamara, ModelChoice and Pelican. They put numbers on uncertainty, so budgets, schedules and decisions hold up when someone asks how sure you are. We started as risk analysis consultants and still use our own tools on client work.
Founded in Ghent, Belgium, by David Vose and Timour Koupeev
The year David Vose began working in quantitative risk analysis
Products, from a single Excel model to the whole organisation
Certified in 2026, with SOC 2 Type II reports in 2025 and 2026
Used by risk analysts at
Our story
Each product began with a problem our clients had and the tools of the day could not handle.
See what we makeOur founders built their careers in risk analysis consulting for governments and businesses. David Vose started in 1988 and worked on problems in insurance, banking, food safety, nuclear power, and oil and gas.
David Vose and Timour Koupeev found Vose Software in Ghent, because the risk software of the day made compact, readable models hard to build. ModelRisk, our Monte Carlo add-in for Excel, launches the same year after five years of development, with copulas, time series and aggregate distributions built in. Wiley publishes the third edition of David’s textbook, Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide.
A client needs rolling risk analyses of a nuclear power plant decommissioning whose plan holds well over 50,000 tasks, and no project risk tool on the market can cope. We write a new simulation engine from scratch and ask a panel of a dozen project risk experts to describe every way risk can affect a project.
Tamara, our cost and schedule risk analysis software, is released commercially at the end of the year. It imports Primavera and Microsoft Project schedules, compares scenarios and risk strategies, and has a spreadsheet built in for risks such as weather or a project’s cash flow.
Most risk registers still score risks as low, medium or high. Pelican is fully quantitative from the start, with bowtie analysis, risk tolerance profiles, several impact dimensions and Monte Carlo simulation. Capital allocation, insurance optimisation and treatment cost efficiency follow, and the tools for leadership grow into Pelican IRM.
An independent auditor attests our controls: SOC 2 Type I in July, then SOC 2 Type II in October, which shows the controls working over time.
We are certified to ISO/IEC 27001:2022 in March, and in October our second SOC 2 Type II report covers a full 12 months. ModelChoice brings decision trees, multi-criteria analysis and value of information to Excel, and ModelRisk gains the Optimizer and the Turbo simulation engine, included in every licence.
What we make
Each product works on its own, for the people who own that kind of risk. Together they give one consistent, quantitative view across the organisation.
ModelRisk
Add uncertainty to any Excel model with 136 distributions, 34 time series models and 14 copulas, see what drives the result, and optimise decisions on the simulated outcomes.
Explore ModelRisk Screenshot: ModelRisk tornado plot ranking the inputs that drive a project’s NPV.
Tamara
Import a Primavera or Microsoft Project schedule and see the chance of finishing on time and on budget, which tasks and risks drive it, and what each response is worth.
Explore Tamara Screenshot: Tamara histogram comparing finish durations with and without risk management.
ModelChoice
Map out your options, their chances and payoffs, and find the best strategy.
Explore ModelChoice Screenshot: ModelChoice decision tree in Excel with the optimal path highlighted.
Pelican
One cloud platform for every risk, from single projects to the whole organisation, measured in money and time.
Explore Pelican Screenshot: Pelican probability-impact chart of an organisation’s risks against its risk appetite.How they fit together: models and schedule results from ModelRisk and Tamara feed Pelican IRM, which gives leadership one view of risk against objectives.
How we work
Vose began as a risk analysis consultancy: find the simplest, clearest analysis of a decision, on the most defensible data, and present it plainly. Our software is built around that idea.
We won’t overcharge, hide costs or misrepresent our products.
An issue with licensing, budgets or billing? We’ll try to find a solution with you.
We like to hear how you use our software and how you think we can improve it.
Technical support comes first. We look after the customers we have before looking for new ones.
Training in risk analysis itself, and advice on building a model, describing a risk or presenting a report, from seasoned analysts.
We have given expert evidence or acted as key risk adviser in international cases, including a WTO trade dispute, US and Australian federal courts and London arbitration.
Our consulting work →Founders
Two risk analysis consultants who could not find the software they needed, so they built it.
Co-founder · In memory
David worked in quantitative risk analysis from 1988, for governments and businesses in insurance, banking, food safety, nuclear power, and oil and gas. He wrote Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Wiley, third edition 2008), co-authored and edited international guidelines on risk, published many peer-reviewed papers and served as an expert witness in high-profile court cases.
David died in 2024. His book, his online course and his articles still shape how we teach risk analysis.
Co-founder
Like David, Timour came to software from risk analysis consulting, and the two founded Vose Software together in 2008. He writes many of our articles on risk modelling and decision-making.
Security
Our web platforms hold clients’ risk data, so outside auditors check how we protect it.
July 2025
Controls designed and in place, attested by an independent auditor.
October 2025 and 2026
The same controls shown to operate effectively over time. The latest report covers 12 months.
March 2026
Certified information security management system, after an external audit.
Reports are available on request under NDA. Our commitment to security →
Work with us
Learn the method, get a second opinion on a model, or work with a partner in your region.
Courses in risk analysis as well as in our software, online or on site, from first steps to masterclasses.
Training courses →We build risk models, review yours before a critical decision or a public review, and give expert evidence.
Consulting services →Our partners teach, consult and support teams in their own region and language.
Our partners →Online introductions to our software, masterclasses and the events we take part in.
Upcoming events →Contact
VAT BE0895601691
FAQ
In Ghent (Gent), Belgium: Vose Software BV, Kompasplein 14, 9000 Gent. We work with clients around the world, online and through partners in several regions.
David Vose and Timour Koupeev, both risk analysis consultants, founded the company in 2008. David, the author of Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, died in 2024.
Yes. Its author, David Vose, co-founded Vose Software, and the company was built on his work. The book’s third edition was published by Wiley in 2008.
ModelRisk for Monte Carlo simulation in Excel, Tamara for cost and schedule risk analysis, ModelChoice for decision tree analysis in Excel, and Pelican, a quantitative risk register for every risk, from single projects to the whole organisation.
Our controls are independently audited: SOC 2 Type I (July 2025), SOC 2 Type II (October 2025, and October 2026 for the 12 months to September 2026) and ISO/IEC 27001:2022 certification (March 2026). The reports are available on request under NDA.
Yes. We run courses in risk analysis and in our software, build and audit risk models, and provide expert witness services. Partners offer training and support in their own regions.
Ask about a product, a licence, a model you are building or a course. Or try ModelRisk free for 15 days.
