Excel add-in
Monte Carlo simulation in Excel
Add uncertainty to any Excel model and see the full range of outcomes, with their probabilities.
Explore ModelRisk
Quantitative risk analysis software
Quantify risk and uncertainty. Decide with confidence.
Four tools that put a probability on every possible outcome.
Explore ModelRisk
Primavera P6 · Microsoft Project
Cost and schedule risk analysis
Simulate your project schedule to get finish dates and costs at the confidence you choose.
Explore Tamara
Excel add-in
Decision tree analysis in Excel
Map out your options, their chances and payoffs, and find the best strategy.
Explore ModelChoice
Web platform
Quantitative risk register
One cloud platform for every risk, from single projects to the whole organisation, measured in money and time.
Explore Pelican
Figures from illustrative models
Figures from illustrative models.
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How they fit together
Start with one tool. Connect all four when you’re ready.
Each tool works on its own. All four share one quantitative approach, so their results can be combined into one view of risk.
- Decision tree analysis in ExcelModelChoiceRuns its simulations through ModelRisk.
- Monte Carlo simulation in ExcelModelRiskResults from your Excel risk models feed Pelican IRM.
- Cost and schedule risk analysisTamaraExchanges risks and results with Pelican, and exports results to ModelRisk.
- Quantitative risk registerPelican Risk RegisterOperational risks across the organisation, in one shared register.
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Pelican IRM
One view of risk for leadership
Pelican IRM brings together the quantified results from ModelRisk, Tamara and the Risk Register, so leadership sees total exposure against its risk appetite.
About Pelican IRM →
Where it's used
Built for people who have to stand behind the number.
Capital projects and construction
QCRA and QSRA for defensible estimates, risk contingency and completion dates.
Oil and gas
Estimate reserves, stress-test capex and schedules, value the asset and back the right investment.
Power, renewables and utilities
Estimate energy yield, stress-test capex and commercial operation dates, and decide which projects and network investments to fund.
Mining and metals
Put ranges on grade, recovery and metal prices, and see what they mean for life-of-mine NPV and the investment case.
Aerospace and defence
Set programme budgets and schedules at a joint confidence level, and model reliability and through-life cost.
Manufacturing
Model plant capacity, Six Sigma quality and supply chains under uncertainty.
Insurance and reinsurance
Model loss distributions, price premiums and reinsurance, and hold capital for a 1-in-200-year loss.
Corporate finance and investment
Put ranges on M&A and company valuations, simulate portfolios and find the efficient frontier.
Pharma and life sciences
Value R&D pipelines with rNPV, and make go/no-go calls at every phase gate.
Beyond the software
Help from people who build risk models.
Vose Software began as a risk analysis consultancy, and its methods build on David Vose's textbook Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide.
Training
Courses in risk analysis and in our software, from first steps to masterclasses.
Training courses →Consulting and model audits
We build risk models, or review yours before a critical decision or a public review.
Consulting services →Questions
Do I need to be a statistician to use Vose software?
No. You can describe uncertainty in terms you already use, such as minimum, most likely and maximum estimates, and each product comes with example models to start from. The statistical tools, such as distribution fitting and copulas, are there when you need them, and our training covers the method as well as the software.
Can I try the software before buying?
Yes. ModelRisk, ModelChoice and Tamara each have a free 15-day trial. Pelican is a web platform set up for each organisation, so it starts with a presentation and a demonstration on your kind of risks.
Can I bring my @RISK or Crystal Ball models?
Yes. ModelRisk includes free converters for @RISK and Crystal Ball models, and ModelChoice imports PrecisionTree models with one command. Your models stay in Excel.
Which industries use Vose software?
Aerospace and defence, construction and infrastructure, energy, pharmaceuticals, insurance, finance, government and consulting, as well as universities. Customers include NASA, Boeing, Merck, Deloitte and the UK Ministry of Defence.
Last updated October 2026
Start with the tool you need.
Free 15-day trials of ModelRisk, ModelChoice and Tamara. For Pelican, we'll show it to you on risks like yours.