ModelRisk videos
ModelRisk video tutorialsFrom your first model to advanced features
Short videos that show ModelRisk at work in Excel: building a model, running the simulation and reading the results, switching from @RISK, and techniques for harder problems. Where a video has a workbook, you can download it and follow along.
Your first model in 13 minutes
Risk analysis of a simple cost model (video, opens in a new tab)
A complete risk analysis of a simple cost model, from the spreadsheet to the results. Download the model and follow along.
Quick start · 11 videos · 57 min
Build your first model
Short videos, in order, that cover what you need to build your own models in ModelRisk.
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Length 2:44
01ModelRisk ribbon overview (video, opens in a new tab)
A tour of the ModelRisk ribbon in Excel and what each group of tools is for.
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Length 1:48
02Customising the ModelRisk ribbon (video, opens in a new tab)
Change the ModelRisk ribbon so it shows the tools you use.
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Length 0:34
03Quick copy/paste customisation (video, opens in a new tab)
Choose which functions and tools appear in ModelRisk's Quick-Paste menu.
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Length 0:37
04Language setting for ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)
Choose the language ModelRisk uses.
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Length 12:53
05Risk analysis of a simple cost model (video, opens in a new tab)
A complete risk analysis of a simple cost model, from the spreadsheet to the results. Download the model and follow along.
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Length 12:00
06Correlating distributions (video, opens in a new tab)
Correlate uncertain inputs in a ModelRisk model, using the example model from the video.
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Length 15:43
07Overview of how ModelRisk presents results (video, opens in a new tab)
The results charts, analytics and reports in ModelRisk, shown on an NPV model with two scenarios.
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Length 7:09
08Running multiple simulations with ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)
Run several simulations in one go, for example to compare scenarios.
NPV, two scenarios (Excel workbook)Simulations and samples (Excel workbook)
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Length 0:36
09View Function (video, opens in a new tab)
See exactly what a ModelRisk function in a cell does.
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Length 1:19
10Using example models with ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)
Where to find the example models and how to open them in ModelRisk.
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Length 1:34
11ModelRisk help file (video, opens in a new tab)
Find your way around the help file, which covers more than 1,000 topics.
Switching from @RISK · 3 videos · 4 min
Bring your @RISK models across
Give the ribbon an @RISK-style layout and convert @RISK models, one at a time or many at once.
How ModelRisk compares with @RISK →-
Length 0:58
@RISK-style ribbon: making the ModelRisk menu look like @RISK (video, opens in a new tab)
Arrange the ModelRisk ribbon like the @RISK menu to make the move easier.
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Length 1:46
Converting a single @RISK model to ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)
The converter makes a copy of an @RISK model and converts it to ModelRisk.
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Length 1:21
Converting many @RISK models to ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)
Copy and convert a whole folder of @RISK models in one go.
Worked examples · 9 videos · 1 h 59 min
Follow a model from start to finish
Each video runs through an example model, from a financial risk register to a correlated insurance portfolio.
Browse the example model library →-
Length 10:25
Financial risk register model (video, opens in a new tab)
A risk register turned into a financial risk model, with the workbook from the video.
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Length 23:53
Aggregating a risk portfolio (video, opens in a new tab)
Add up the risks in a portfolio to see the total exposure.
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Length 33:46
Risk modelling for Basel II (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
How ModelRisk's tools for the financial industry help a bank model its financial exposure under Basel II and III.
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Length 9:26
Project schedule example (video, opens in a new tab)
A Monte Carlo simulation of a project schedule in Excel.
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Length 9:51
Forecast portfolio of assets (video, opens in a new tab)
Forecast the value of a portfolio of assets, with its uncertainty.
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Length 8:35
Interest rate modelling (video, opens in a new tab)
Model future interest rates and their uncertainty.
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Length 8:34
Correlated insurance portfolio (video, opens in a new tab)
An insurance portfolio whose risks are correlated.
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Length 8:00
The weakest link (extreme value function) (video, opens in a new tab)
Model the weakest link in a chain with an extreme value function.
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Length 6:26
NFL playoff simulation (video, opens in a new tab)
A sports example: simulating the NFL playoffs.
Advanced features · 12 videos · 3 h 51 min
Tools for harder problems
ModelRisk has tools that simplify common but technically challenging risk analysis problems. These videos explain some of them.
The ModelRisk Optimizer →-
Length 1:14:52
Advanced time series forecasting (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
Review historic data and use what you know about the system to build credible forecasts with the right level of uncertainty.
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Length 28:09
Splicing distributions (video, opens in a new tab)
When the bulk of your data fits a distribution well but the high-end tail does not, splice two distributions together.
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Length 39:40
Modelling extremes (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
Estimate the size and probability of extreme events, in fields from finance and insurance to weather and engineering design.
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Length 9:31
Combining expert opinion (video, opens in a new tab)
Combine several experts' estimates of the same quantity into one distribution.
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Length 16:16
Markov chain model (video, opens in a new tab)
Model how something moves between states over time with a Markov chain.
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Length 9:33
Sum a random number of random variables (video, opens in a new tab)
Model the total of an uncertain number of uncertain amounts, such as the claims in a year.
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Length 9:47
Portfolio optimization (video, opens in a new tab)
Choose the best portfolio when the returns are uncertain.
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Length 8:18
ModelRisk Data Viewer (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
View the simulation results of selected variables on charts.
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Length 3:47
Feature showcase: ribbon templates (video, opens in a new tab)
Switch the layout of the ModelRisk ribbon with a template.
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Length 9:25
ModelRisk fitting overview (video, opens in a new tab)
An overview of ModelRisk's tools for fitting to data.
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Length 12:51
Fitting a distribution to data (video, opens in a new tab)
Fit a probability distribution to your data and use it in a model.
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Length 9:06
Fitting time series (video, opens in a new tab)
Fit a time series model to historical data.
Risk analysis methods · 8 videos · 3 h 45 min
The ideas behind the models
Talks and recorded webinars on quantifying risk for decisions, correlation, and fitting distributions and copulas to data.
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Length 58:54
Quantifying risk and input into decision making (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
Why quantitative risk analysis gives clearer guidance on decisions, from controlling risks and corporate strategy to projects and investments.
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Length 1:06:59
Accounting for risk in your business decisions using ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
Our co-founder, the late David Vose, explains the basics of spreadsheet risk modelling.
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Length 54:20
Correlation: what it is, why it matters, how to estimate and model it (video, opens in a new tab)Webinar
Leaving out correlation between uncertain variables gives misleading results. How to estimate it and model it.
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Length 8:31
Correlation of non-linear historical data (video, opens in a new tab)
Model variables whose historical relationship is not a straight line.
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Length 9:22
Fitting parametric distributions (video, opens in a new tab)
Fit a distribution with a known shape, such as a Normal or a Lognormal, to data.
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Length 9:27
Fitting non-parametric distributions (video, opens in a new tab)
Build a distribution straight from the data, without assuming its shape.
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Length 8:11
Fitting parametric copulas (video, opens in a new tab)
Fit a copula to the joint pattern in historical data for two or more variables.
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Length 9:13
Fitting non-parametric copulas (video, opens in a new tab)
Model the dependence between variables straight from historical data, without choosing a copula family.
Keep learning
More ways to learn ModelRisk
Example models
Worked risk analysis models in Excel that you can open, run and take apart.
Browse the examples →Step-by-step guide
Run a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel, with plain formulas or an add-in, and download the workbook.
Read the guide →Training and webinars
Courses in risk analysis and in our software, online or at your offices, and free live webinars.
See training →Risk Wiki
A free online risk analysis manual of about 1,000 pages, with pages on the ModelRisk functions.
Open the Risk Wiki (opens in a new tab)More videos and recorded webinars are on the Vose Software YouTube channel (opens in a new tab).
FAQ
Questions about the videos
Do I need a ModelRisk licence to follow the videos?
No. A free trial is enough. Download it, open the workbook from the video where there is one, and follow along.
Can I download the models used in the videos?
Yes, where a video has one: use the workbook link under the video. Many more models are in our example model library.
Do the videos show the current version of ModelRisk?
Many were recorded with earlier versions, so some screens may look different from yours. The ModelRisk help file and the Risk Wiki (opens in a new tab) describe the functions as they work today.
I use @RISK. Can I convert my models?
Yes. ModelRisk includes a converter for a single model or many models at once, and its ribbon can take an @RISK-style layout. The videos in Switching from @RISK show both.
Where can I find more videos?
On the Vose Software YouTube channel (opens in a new tab), which also has recorded webinars.
Is there a course?
Yes. We run courses in risk analysis and in our software, online or at your offices, and free live webinars. See the training page.
Try it on your own model
Download the free trial, open a workbook from the videos and follow along in Excel.