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ArticlesPractical guides to quantitative risk analysis

Monte Carlo simulation, cost and schedule risk, sensitivity analysis and decision analysis, explained for people who build the models, many with a worked example or a free workbook.

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ModelRisk

Monte Carlo Simulation Software: How to Choose the Right Kind for Your Model

Monte Carlo simulation software comes in five kinds: plain Excel, Excel add-ins, schedule risk tools, standalone simulators and code. Which fits your model?
ModelRisk

Test the ModelRisk Optimizer on Ten Problems with Known Answers

Ten optimisation problems with uncertain inputs and known best answers. See how fast the ModelRisk Optimizer solves them, then test your own optimiser.
Tamara

Monte Carlo Simulation in Project Management: S-curves, P80 Dates and Tornado Diagrams

Monte Carlo simulation for project schedules: how to read S-curves, P50 and P80 dates and tornado diagrams, with a live simulation and PMP exam notes.
Tamara

Three-Point Estimating: the PERT and Triangular Formulas, with a Calculator

Three-point estimating explained: the PERT and triangular formulas, standard deviation, a free calculator with P80, and how to add estimates up correctly.
ModelRisk

Sensitivity Analysis in Excel: One-Way Tables, Tornado Charts and Data Tables

How to do sensitivity analysis in Excel step by step: a one-way table, a tornado chart and a two-way Data Table, with a free NPV workbook to download.
ModelRisk

Qualitative vs Quantitative Risk Analysis: Four Risk Managers, One Project

Four risk managers and Trevor, one €10m project, the same luck. We simulated 10,000 years to see what qualitative and quantitative risk analysis change.
Tamara

Primavera Risk Analysis Alternative

Looking for a Primavera Risk Analysis alternative? What a replacement must do, how to move your P6 schedule risk model across, and what Tamara costs a year.
ModelRisk

Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel: a Step-by-Step Guide

How to run a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel step by step: plain formulas (RAND, NORM.INV, a Data Table) or an add-in, with a free workbook to download.
ModelRisk

Is the Hot Hand Real? The Fallacy, Simulated

A famous 1985 study called the hot hand a myth. Its way of measuring streaks was biased: simulate it, and a real hot hand looks like no hot hand at all.
ModelRisk

Fitting Distributions to Data in Excel

How to fit probability distributions to data in Excel: ranked candidates, AIC and SIC explained, and a Johnson SU worked example you can download and check.
ModelRisk

Cost Risk Analysis: Methods, Models, Outputs

What cost risk analysis is, the methods that work, and the outputs a board can fund: S-curves, tornado charts and a defensible P80 contingency in Excel.
ModelRisk

Sensitivity Analysis in Excel: Tornado Charts Done Right

What a tornado chart shows and how to make one in Excel: a worked Monte Carlo example, the three traps that make the bars lie, and a free model to check.
ModelRisk

@RISK Alternatives: Honest Comparison

The realistic @RISK alternatives compared honestly: features, speed, prices with sources, who should switch and who should stay - plus a free converter.
ModelChoice

PrecisionTree Alternative: Honest Comparison

Looking for a PrecisionTree alternative? Decision trees, Bayes revision and value of information compared honestly, with sourced prices and a free trial.
ModelRisk

How Many Monte Carlo Iterations Do You Need?

Race four aircraft boarding methods in Excel, then run it 3,000 times. A free workbook showing why one simulation run is an anecdote, and how many you need.
ModelRisk

Risk Analysis Software: What It Does and How to Choose

What risk analysis software does, the four types it comes in, what it costs, and how to choose the right one for cost, schedule or decision risk analysis.
ModelChoice

What Is Information Worth? A Worked EVPI and EVII Example

EVPI and EVII with a worked example you can check: what perfect information is worth, what a real pilot study is worth, and when it is rational to buy one.
ModelRisk

AI + Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel: ModelRisk MCP

ModelRisk MCP connects AI assistants directly to Monte Carlo simulation in Excel: the assistant builds, fits and runs the model - it does not just advise.
ModelRisk

The Number Your Forecast Is Hiding

Every single-point forecast hides its own probability. How to find the real chance of hitting the number - and what to do when it is lower than you think.
ModelRisk

Before You Renew @RISK: A 10-Minute Audit

Renewing @RISK? Run this 10-minute audit first: what you pay, what you actually use, and what the same budget buys elsewhere — free model converter included.
Tamara

Primavera P6 Schedule Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide

How to run a Monte Carlo risk analysis on a Primavera P6 schedule and set schedule contingency from the P80 date: uncertainty, risk events and key charts.
ModelRisk

Frequency-Severity Modelling in Excel: A Practical Guide

Frequency-severity modelling explained: pick the frequency and severity distributions, build the aggregate loss distribution, and read premiums and capital.
ModelRisk

How to Calculate Cost Contingency (P50, P80)

Step-by-step cost contingency calculation with Monte Carlo simulation: a worked €12m example, P50, P80 and P90 compared, and a free model to check it with.
ModelRisk

How Much Does @RISK Cost? Pricing and Alternatives in 2026

Lumivero lists @RISK at €2,900–€3,500 per year in its web shop (August 2026). What drives the real cost, and how the main @RISK alternatives compare.
ModelRisk

ModelRisk vs Oracle Crystal Ball: 2026 Comparison

ModelRisk vs Oracle Crystal Ball for Monte Carlo simulation in Excel: methods, fitting, pricing and migration compared — free 15-day trial included.
ModelChoice

Top 7 Decision Analysis Tools Compared

Decision tree and decision analysis software compared: ModelChoice, PrecisionTree, DPL, Analytica, TreeAge, TreePlan and the free SilverDecisions, with prices.
ModelRisk

5 Best Risk Analysis Add-Ins for Excel

Compare the top 5 Monte Carlo risk analysis add-ins for Excel — ModelRisk, @RISK, Crystal Ball, Analytic Solver and RiskAMP — features and 2026 prices.
Tamara

6 Best Project Risk Analysis Tools

Compare 6 project risk management tools for QSRA: RiskyProject, Acumen Risk, Safran Risk, Tamara and two more, scored on usability, capability and price.
IDW PS 340 software requirements

What IDW PS 340 n.F. (2020) requires of risk management software: quantitative risk aggregation, documented methods, traceability and audit-ready reports.
Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation explained step by step: what it is, how it works, and how to read the results — with clear examples from risk analysis practice.

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