Industries / Power, renewables and utilities
Estimate energy yield, stress-test capex and commercial operation dates, and decide which projects and network investments to fund.
ModelRisk
Tamara
ModelChoice
PelicanEnergy from a 100 MW wind farm in a year
10,000 futures
The P50, 300 GWh, is missed in half of all years. The P90, 269 GWh, which lenders often size debt on, is beaten nine years in ten.
Clients in power, renewables and utilities
The lifecycle
From choosing the project to running it, each stage has its own question. Pick one to jump to it.
Questions we answer
Charts marked with a model code come from a free example model you can open in Excel. The others are marked illustrative.
ModelChoiceAn independent power producer compares three projects for one site, each with its own permitting, resource and policy risks. Solar with four-hour storage has the best expected value, $4.9M; the wind farm comes out at $0.6M.
ModelRiskPut a range on each cost line, add the risk events and simulate. In the free example the base estimate of $36.8M holds in only 12.5% of futures, and a P80 budget needs $1.8M of contingency.
ModelRiskA network reinforcement or a new plant can be built for the full forecast now, or smaller with the option to expand. Simulated, building small and deciding in year 3 is worth $24.5M on average against $16.1M for building big, which loses money in 36.4% of futures.
ModelRiskWork that slips costs more, so cost and time move together. For the treatment works upgrade the chance of meeting both targets is 71.1%; multiplying the two separate chances would give 62.6%.
TamaraRun the risks against the construction schedule in Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project, and see whether turbines, the substation or the grid connection drive the date the revenue starts.
With most likely durations the farm is energised in month 23.
Only 45% of futures make month 24; P80 is month 25.9.
PelicanOne shared register for every asset, with owners and actions. It exchanges risks and results with Tamara and takes in results from your ModelRisk models, so the register and the numbers stay in step.
| Asset | Risk | Owner | Before | After | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind farm North | Grid connection energised late | Grid manager | 20 | 9 | Mitigating |
| Gas peaker | Transformer lead time doubles | Procurement lead | 16 | 8 | Mitigating |
| Hydro scheme | A dry year cuts output | Asset manager | 15 | 9 | Open |
| Control centre | Cyber attack on SCADA | Security officer | 15 | 5 | Mitigating |
| Network | Regulated price reset lower | Regulation lead | 12 | 6 | Open |
How it fits together
The same risks feed the estimate and the construction schedule, and the results go back to the register.
PelicanCapture the risksThreats, opportunities, owners and actions for every asset and project.ModelRiskCost themCapex ranges and risk events in Excel give the P50 and P80 budget.TamaraSchedule themThe same risks on the P6 or Microsoft Project schedule give the P80 operation date.PelicanReport backResults return to the register for the board and the portfolio view.Free example models
Decision trees for renewable projects and a water treatment plant, and models whose methods carry over to power and network assets: capex contingency, risk reserve, schedule risk, joint confidence and staged investment.
Renewable Energy Project SelectionAn independent power producer (IPP) is evaluating three renewable energy projects for a site with both good solar irradiance and wind resources.Wind Farm PortfolioA renewable energy company holds development rights for wind farm sites.Water Treatment PlantA municipal water utility must expand treatment capacity to meet growing demand and comply with stricter EPA water quality standards.Cost Estimate with ContingencyHow much contingency does the warehouse budget need?Risk Register: Threats and OpportunitiesHow much risk contingency does the hospital extension need?Schedule Risk on a Project NetworkWhen will the new bridge open?Integrated Cost and Schedule RiskBudget and completion date together: how confident can the sponsor be of both, for the treatment works upgrade?Real Options: Expand or AbandonBuild big now, or start small and decide later?Training
Risk analysis modelling courses can focus on your industry and on the problems you model, online or face-to-face.
See the coursesConsulting
Our consultants review one of your own models before a critical decision or a public review.
See consultingFAQ
The P50 is the annual energy the plant exceeds in half of all years; the P90 is exceeded in nine years out of ten. Lenders often size debt on a P90 or P99 case, so the gap between the two decides how much the project can borrow.
Yes. In the free renewable project example, solar with four-hour storage has the best expected value, $4.9M, against $3.7M for solar alone and $0.6M for the wind farm, with permitting, resource and policy risks in the tree.
Yes, if it is in Primavera P6, Microsoft Project or Microsoft Planner Premium. Tamara adds the duration uncertainty and the risk events and shows the range of dates and the activities that drive them.
Yes. ModelRisk, ModelChoice and Tamara each have a free 15-day trial, and our team can go through one of your own models or schedules with you. For Pelican, we will show it to you on risks like yours.
Free 15-day trials of ModelRisk, ModelChoice and Tamara. For Pelican, we'll show it to you on risks like yours.
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