Industries / Pharma and life sciences
Value R&D pipelines with rNPV, and make go/no-go calls at every phase gate.
ModelRisk
ModelChoiceDuration of a Phase II trial
10,000 futures
The 28-month plan holds in 12.5% of futures. With 80% confidence, top-line results come in October 2029, not May.
Clients in pharma and life sciences
The lifecycle
From the first patient to peak sales, each stage has its own question. Pick one to jump to it.
Questions we answer
Charts marked with a model code come from a free example model you can open in Excel. The others are marked illustrative.
ModelChoiceWeigh the efficacy trial against partnering before the money is committed. Running Phase II has the best expected value, $135.1M, against $41.8M for partnering, even with a 20% chance of a safety concern ending the programme.
ModelRiskSimulate site start-up and enrolment instead of assuming every site recruits at the planned rate. With the plan's 40 sites the last patient is in by month 18 in 15% of futures; 60 sites make it 83%.
Median month 21.4 · P80 month 25.0
ModelRiskCost per patient, monthly running costs and the risks of a clinical hold or slow enrolment all feed the budget. The base estimate is enough in 13.5% of futures; a P80 budget needs $14.54M.
ModelRiskAt the interim, 14 of the first 40 patients have responded. With the Phase Ib result as the prior, the chance of reaching 29 responders out of 100 is 83%, so the trial carries on.
ModelRiskMost of the value sits in the 18.1% of futures where the drug launches. Developing alone has the higher mean, $61.5M against $45.5M for licensing, and loses money in 82% of futures against 65%.
Mean $61.5M · rNPV $76.7M
ModelRiskBuild peak sales from the patient funnel, the uptake curve and the competition. The base case says $924M; there is a 46% chance of passing $1 billion, and the year-five market share drives most of the range.
ModelChoiceA biosimilar of an $8B biologic, with patent litigation pending. Launching at risk has the best expected value, $130.0M, against $117.1M for waiting for a settlement and $80.9M for licensing in.
ModelRiskThree of the last 40 batches failed, and that record cannot pin the failure rate down. Allowing for it, 29 batches give a 95% chance of meeting launch demand; taking the rate as known would say 27.
ModelRiskCompare portfolios on value, pipeline and budget at once. Funding all eight projects has the highest mean NPV, $540M, but overruns the budget in every future; the four that fit the budget give $482M with a 2% chance of overrunning.
Mean NPV $540M · no launch 15% · over budget 100%
How it fits together
Built in ModelRisk, in Excel. Each step has a free example model you can open.
ModelRiskRecruitmentSite start-up and enrolment rates.PH-02 ModelRiskTrial cost and timelinePhases, risks and contingency.PH-01 ModelRiskChance of successInterim data updating the prior.PH-08 ModelRiskPeak salesPatient funnel, uptake and competition.PH-05 ModelRiskRisk-adjusted valueStage by stage, develop or license.PH-03 Free example models
Pharma models and decision trees for trials, launches and portfolios. Each one opens in Excel.
Clinical Trial Go/No-Go DecisionA biotech company has completed Phase I safety trials for a novel therapeutic compound targeting autoimmune diseases.Clinical Trial Cost and DurationWhat budget and what date for the top-line results?Patient Recruitment and Trial TimelinesWhen will the last patient be enrolled — and how many sites does it take to be confident of the deadline?Drug Development Risk-Adjusted NPVWhat is a compound in Phase II worth — and should we develop it ourselves or license it out?R&D Portfolio: Which Projects to FundEight projects, one budget: which to fund for value, for a steady pipeline, and within the money we have?Launch Sales Forecast: Peak Sales and UptakeHow big will the new drug be?Batch Yield and Manufacturing CapacityHow many batches must we plan to make enough drug substance for the launch year?Bayesian Estimate of a Trial's Success ProbabilityHalfway through a Phase II trial: how likely is it to succeed — and should it stop, or carry on?Training
Risk analysis modelling courses can focus on your industry and on the problems you model, online or face-to-face.
See the coursesConsulting
Our consultants review one of your own models before a critical decision or a public review.
See consultingFAQ
A risk-adjusted NPV weights each stage by the chance of reaching it and gives one number. A simulation keeps the outcomes apart, so you also see how often the compound loses money. In the free Phase II example the rNPV is $76.7M, and 82% of futures lose money if the company develops it alone.
Yes. The free interim example combines a prior from Phase Ib with 14 responders in the first 40 patients and gives an 82.8% predictive probability of success from its 10,000 futures; the exact Beta-Binomial answer, 83.0%, is on the sheet as a check.
Enough to meet the enrolment deadline at the confidence you choose. In the free recruitment example 40 sites meet the 18-month deadline in 15% of futures, and 60 sites are the fewest that meet it 80% of the time.
Yes. ModelRisk and ModelChoice each have a free 15-day trial, and our team can go through one of your own models with you.
Free 15-day trials of ModelRisk, ModelChoice and Tamara. For Pelican, we'll show it to you on risks like yours.
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