ModelChoice videos
ModelChoice tutorial videosDecision trees in Excel, one short video at a time
Short videos that take you from your first decision tree to risk profiles, sensitivity analysis, value of information, robustness and a one-page Decision Brief. Most use the Startup Product Launch example that ships with ModelChoice, so you can follow along in Excel.
Length 2:36Start here: ModelChoice in under 3 minutes
Introducing ModelChoice: decision tree software for Excel (video, opens in a new tab)
The decisions a tree helps with, how ModelChoice finds the best choice on the worksheet and updates it when your numbers change, and what the rest of the series covers.
Quick start · 8 videos · 22 min
Build your first decision tree
Start with the introduction, then build, read and edit a tree, link it to your Excel model, and find your way around the settings and the example models.
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Length 2:36
01Introducing ModelChoice: decision tree software for Excel (video, opens in a new tab)
The decisions a tree helps with, how ModelChoice finds the best choice on the worksheet and updates it when your numbers change, and what the rest of the series covers.
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Length 3:05
02A tour of the ModelChoice ribbon (video, opens in a new tab)
The ModelChoice tab on Excel’s ribbon, group by group, so you know where every tool lives before you start.
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Length 5:01
03Your first decision tree in Excel (video, opens in a new tab)
A product launch decision built from a blank workbook: decision, chance and end nodes, probabilities and payoffs, and the best choice.
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Length 2:11
04Reading a rolled-back decision tree (video, opens in a new tab)
What every number on a solved tree means: probabilities, values, path totals, expected values and the optimal path.
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Length 4:28
05Editing a decision tree (video, opens in a new tab)
Add a smaller first step, a minimum viable product, with the node menu and the Node Editor, and see how the best choice changes.
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Length 1:42
06Linking a decision tree to your Excel model (video, opens in a new tab)
Every probability and value in the tree is an ordinary Excel cell: link it to an assumptions sheet and the tree follows.
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Length 2:02
07Model settings and application settings (video, opens in a new tab)
Settings saved with each tree, such as maximising profit or minimising cost, and your own defaults for every new tree.
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Length 1:00
08Example models and help (video, opens in a new tab)
Find the ready-made example models in the Example Navigator, by name, industry and use, and see where to get help.
Analysing a decision · 9 videos · 18 min
See the risk and test the answer
Risk profiles, the recommended plan, sensitivity analysis, value of information, robustness and the one-page Decision Brief, all from the same tree.
Value of information explained, with examples →-
Length 3:03
09Risk profile: every outcome and its chance (video, opens in a new tab)
Every result each choice can lead to and how likely it is, so you see the risk behind the expected value before you commit.
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Length 1:44
10Policy suggestion: the recommended plan (video, opens in a new tab)
A tree with several decisions turned into a simple plan: first do this, then, depending on what happens, do that.
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Length 1:33
11Strategy table: every strategy compared (video, opens in a new tab)
Every complete plan with its expected value and its risk, best first, plus the efficient frontier and the risk-return chart.
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Length 1:58
12One-way sensitivity analysis: tornado and spider charts (video, opens in a new tab)
Move each estimate in turn to see which ones really move the answer, and whether any of them changes the decision.
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Length 2:16
13Two-way sensitivity analysis (video, opens in a new tab)
Move two inputs at once and map which choice wins across both ranges.
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Length 3:09
14Value of information: is a survey worth paying for? (video, opens in a new tab)
What an imperfect market survey is worth (EVII), and the most any information could be worth (EVPI).
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Length 1:31
15Break the decision: how robust is your answer? (video, opens in a new tab)
The value of every input at which the best choice would change, the biggest single threat, and a robustness score.
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Length 1:21
16Force to outcome: what would have to be true? (video, opens in a new tab)
Pick the choice you want to come out on top and see the changes to your inputs that would make it win, easiest first.
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Length 1:30
17Decision brief: a one-page summary for the board (video, opens in a new tab)
The recommendation, how firm it is, the key drivers, the risk and the nearest threats on one page, exported to PDF.
Beyond the average · 4 videos · 8 min
Attitude to risk, several criteria and simulation
Go past the expected value: utility functions for your attitude to risk, multi-criteria analysis with AHP weights, and Monte Carlo simulation with ModelRisk.
ModelRisk: Monte Carlo simulation in Excel →-
Length 1:55
18Attitude to risk with utility functions (video, opens in a new tab)
Let the tree take your attitude to risk into account, with a risk tolerance, certainty equivalents and the risk premium.
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Length 2:03
19Multi-criteria decisions (MCDA) in a decision tree (video, opens in a new tab)
Weigh cost, emissions and reliability together to choose a company’s next fleet of vehicles.
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Length 1:41
20Setting criteria weights with AHP (video, opens in a new tab)
Compare two criteria at a time on the Saaty scale, check the consistency ratio, and let ModelChoice turn your answers into weights.
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Length 2:05
21Simulating a decision tree with ModelRisk (video, opens in a new tab)Uses ModelRisk
Turn the tree’s inputs into ModelRisk distributions and run a Monte Carlo simulation to see the whole range of outcomes.
Saving and sharing · 1 video · 1 min
Back up, share and copy your trees
Save a whole tree as JSON text and load it into another workbook.
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Length 1:09
22Saving and loading decision trees as JSON (video, opens in a new tab)
Save a whole tree as text in JSON format and load it into another workbook, to back up, share and copy your trees.
Keep learning
More ways to learn ModelChoice
The ModelChoice page
Every feature, with a product launch tree you can change and solve in your browser.
Explore ModelChoice →Expected monetary value
The number a decision tree rolls back: the formula, worked examples, EMV in a decision tree, and where it misleads.
Read the guide →Value of information
EVPI and EVII with a worked example you can check, and when it is rational to buy more information.
Read the article →Moving from PrecisionTree?
Decision trees, Bayes revision and value of information compared, with sourced prices.
See the comparison →The whole series is also a playlist on YouTube: ModelChoice tutorials (opens in a new tab). For Monte Carlo simulation in Excel, see the ModelRisk video tutorials.
FAQ
Questions about the videos
Do I need a ModelChoice licence to follow the videos?
No. The free 15-day trial is the complete product. Download it, open the Startup Product Launch example from Help, Example Models, and follow along.
Which models do the videos use?
Most use Startup Product Launch, one of the 59 example models that ship with ModelChoice. The multi-criteria videos use Fleet Vehicle Selection and the simulation video uses Oil Well Appraisal. All three open from Help, Example Models.
Do I need ModelRisk?
Only for video 21, Simulating a decision tree with ModelRisk. ModelChoice works on its own in Excel; ModelRisk adds continuous distributions and a Monte Carlo simulation through the tree.
Can I bring in my PrecisionTree models?
Yes. The Import command converts a copy of a PrecisionTree workbook (.xls or .xlsx) into a native ModelChoice tree and leaves the original untouched; video 2 shows where it is on the ribbon. Our PrecisionTree alternative guide compares the two products.
Does ModelChoice work in other languages?
Yes. ModelChoice runs in English, German, Spanish, French, Japanese, Portuguese and Russian. Video 7 shows where to change the language.
Can I watch the videos on YouTube?
Yes. All 22 are in the ModelChoice tutorials playlist (opens in a new tab) on the Vose Software YouTube channel. For Monte Carlo simulation in Excel, see the ModelRisk video tutorials.
Build your first decision tree
Download the free 15-day trial, open the Startup Product Launch example and follow the videos in Excel.