Industries / Aerospace and defence
Set programme budgets and schedules at a joint confidence level, and model reliability and through-life cost.
ModelRisk
Tamara
PelicanCost at completion of a development programme
10,000 futures
The baseline holds in a quarter of futures. A P70 budget needs $180M of management reserve.
Clients in aerospace and defence
The lifecycle
From the bid to the fleet in service, each stage has its own question. Pick one to jump to it.
Questions we answer
Charts marked with a model code come from a free example model you can open in Excel. The others are marked illustrative.
ModelRiskBid too low and you win work that loses money; bid too high and you lose the competition. In the example an 8% markup has the highest expected profit, $0.27M, with a 51.7% chance of winning.
ModelRiskWorst-case tolerancing says the gap can close completely; root-sum-square says 1,545 parts per million out of specification. Simulating the parts as they are really made gives 8,799, and shows which two changes bring it to 1,400.
TamaraRun the risks against the integrated master schedule in Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project, and find which activities drive first flight before you commit to the date.
The plan says first flight in month 32.
Only 14% of futures make month 32; P80 is month 35.5.
ModelRiskWork that slips usually costs more, so cost and schedule move together. In the example the chance of meeting both the budget and the date is 71.1%; multiplying the two separate chances would give 62.6%.
ModelRiskSimulate the threats and opportunities in the register instead of adding up probability times impact. In the example the register's expected value is $4.03M, and 80% confidence needs $6.05M.
ModelRiskTreat each supplier's outages as random events of random length and compare the protections on the same futures. Insurance gives the smallest 1-in-100 year cost; extra safety stock gives the lowest average cost.
ModelRiskCompare maintenance strategies and spares holdings on the same wear-out data. Replacing at 3,500 hours with two spare kits has the lowest mean two-year cost, $183.4k; running to failure costs $376.5k.
Mean $376.5k · a failure finds no kit 96%
PelicanOne shared register for every programme, with owners and actions. It exchanges risks and results with Tamara and takes in results from your ModelRisk models, so the register and the numbers stay in step.
| Programme | Risk | Owner | Before | After | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fighter upgrade | Radar software qualification slips | Chief engineer | 20 | 9 | Mitigating |
| Satellite bus | Single-source reaction wheels late | Supply chain lead | 16 | 8 | Mitigating |
| Trainer aircraft | Export licence delayed | Contracts manager | 15 | 6 | Open |
| Naval radar | Processor board goes obsolete | Product manager | 12 | 4 | Mitigating |
| MRO hangar | Engineer shortage at peak | Operations manager | 12 | 6 | Open |
How it fits together
The same risks feed the estimate at completion and the master schedule, and the results go back to the register.
PelicanCapture the risksThreats, opportunities, owners and actions for every programme.ModelRiskCost themWork-package ranges and risk events give the estimate at completion and the reserve.TamaraSchedule themThe same risks on the integrated master schedule give the P70 date.PelicanReport backResults return to the register for programme reviews and the portfolio view.Free example models
These use the same methods on other assets: management reserve, schedule risk, joint confidence, bid pricing, tolerance stack-ups, reliability, supply disruption and spares.
Risk Register: Threats and OpportunitiesHow much risk contingency does the hospital extension need?Schedule Risk on a Project NetworkWhen will the new bridge open?Integrated Cost and Schedule RiskBudget and completion date together: how confident can the sponsor be of both, for the treatment works upgrade?Bid Pricing: Margin versus Chance of WinningWhat markup should we bid?Tolerance Stack-Up and Process CapabilityWill the assembly's gap stay within specification?Reliability and Availability of a Production LineHow often will the line stop, what does it cost, and is a standby machine worth it?Supply-Chain DisruptionWhat do supplier disruptions cost us, and which protection pays?Spare Parts and Maintenance StrategyRun to failure or replace on a schedule — and how many spare kits to hold?Training
Risk analysis modelling courses can focus on your industry and on the problems you model, online or face-to-face.
See the coursesConsulting
Our consultants review one of your own models before a critical decision or a public review.
See consultingFAQ
The chance of finishing within both the budget and the date. Work that slips usually costs more, so the two move together and the joint chance is not the product of the two. In the free example it is 71.1%, where multiplying the separate chances would give 62.6%.
Enough to reach the confidence level your customer or board sets, read from the simulated cost range rather than set as a flat percentage. In the free risk register example, 80% confidence needs $6.05M against an expected value of $4.03M.
Yes, if it is in Primavera P6, Microsoft Project or Microsoft Planner Premium. Tamara adds the duration uncertainty and the risk events and shows the range of dates and the activities that drive them.
Yes. ModelRisk and Tamara each have a free 15-day trial, and our team can go through one of your own estimates or schedules with you. For Pelican, we will show it to you on risks like yours.
Free 15-day trials of ModelRisk, ModelChoice and Tamara. For Pelican, we'll show it to you on risks like yours.
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