ModelChoice decision tree · Pharma and biotech

Vaccine Platform Investment Decision

Invest in an mRNA platform with a lead vaccine, the platform alone with a partner, one licensed candidate, or nothing?

Complexity: ★★★★★
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From the model’s decision tree

Best first decision: Full Platform + Lead Candidate

The expected value of each first option when every later decision is also made well (the tree rolled back).

First decision	Expected value
Full Platform + Lead Candidate	$538,250,000	✔ best
Platform Only, Seek Partner	$123,500,000
Single Candidate, Licensed Platform	$118,500,000
Don't Invest	$0

Measure	Value
Expected value of the best strategy	$538,250,000
Chance of a loss on the best strategy	39.0%
Best outcome on the best strategy	$2,200,000,000
Worst outcome on the best strategy	−$330,000,000

The best strategy: chance of each outcome or less

S-curve (cumulative probability) of Full Platform + Lead Candidate from the saved simulation.

The decision

A biotech company with mRNA expertise is evaluating whether to invest in a next-generation mRNA vaccine platform. The platform could enable rapid development of vaccines against multiple infectious diseases, including pandemic preparedness candidates. The investment ranges from $60M for a single candidate to $300M for a full platform with lead product.

Objective

Maximize expected NPV. Platform value can reach $5B if multiple products succeed, but technology risk and competitive landscape are significant.

The options

Option 1: Full Platform + Lead Candidate ($300M): Build the complete mRNA platform including lipid nanoparticle delivery, self-amplifying RNA technology, and thermostable formulation. Simultaneously advance a lead vaccine candidate through clinical trials. If platform is validated, decide: pursue multiple candidates or license broadly.
Option 2: Platform Only, Seek Partner ($120M): Develop the platform technology without committing to specific vaccine candidates. Once validated, seek pharma partners to develop and commercialize vaccines using the platform.
Option 3: Single Candidate, Licensed Platform ($60M): License an existing mRNA platform from a competitor and focus solely on developing one vaccine candidate. Lower investment but no platform ownership.
Option 4: Don't Invest: Preserve capital for other opportunities. No exposure to vaccine market.

The decision tree

The tree has 3 decisions, 14 chance events and 35 outcomes. The best path is open: at every decision the best choice is marked, and the expected value beside each branch counts every cash flow from the start. Open any other branch to see what follows it.

DecisionChance event+$ cash flow on the branch

Decision: Vaccine Platform Investment

Full Platform + Lead Candidate −$300,000,000expected $538,250,000 ✔ best
Chance: Platform Technology Validation
- 55% Platform Validatedexpected $830,000,000
  Decision: Validated Platform Strategy
  - Pursue Multiple Candidates −$200,000,000expected $808,750,000
    Chance: Multiple Candidate Trials
    25% 2+ Candidates Succeedexpected $2,825,000,000
    Chance: Pandemic Preparedness Contracts
    35% Major Government Contracts +$5,000,000,000payoff $4,500,000,000
    40% Moderate Contracts +$3,000,000,000payoff $2,500,000,000
    25% Limited Demand +$1,500,000,000payoff $1,000,000,000
    40% 1 Candidate Succeedsexpected $650,000,000
    Chance: Competitive Landscape
    30% First-to-Market Advantage +$2,000,000,000payoff $1,500,000,000
    45% Competitive Market +$1,000,000,000payoff $500,000,000
    25% Crowded Market +$400,000,000payoff −$100,000,000
    35% All Candidates Fail +$50,000,000payoff −$450,000,000
  - License Platform Broadlyexpected $830,000,000 ✔ best
    Chance: Platform Licensing Outcome
    30% Multiple Major Licensees +$2,500,000,000payoff $2,200,000,000
    40% Few Licensees +$800,000,000payoff $500,000,000
    30% Limited Interest +$200,000,000payoff −$100,000,000
  - Focus on Lead Candidate Only −$100,000,000expected $196,000,000
    Chance: Lead Candidate Clinical Trial
    35% Strong Efficacy + Safetyexpected $860,000,000
    Chance: Lead: Pandemic Contracts
    40% Stockpile Contract Won +$1,800,000,000payoff $1,400,000,000
    60% Commercial Only +$900,000,000payoff $500,000,000
    35% Moderate Efficacy +$400,000,000payoff $0
    30% Trial Failure +$50,000,000payoff −$350,000,000
- 30% Partial Validationexpected $407,500,000
  Decision: Partial Validation - Next Step?
  - Invest More to Fix Issues −$80,000,000expected $407,500,000 ✔ best
    Chance: Platform Fix Outcome
    40% Issues Resolved +$1,500,000,000payoff $1,120,000,000
    35% Partial Fix +$500,000,000payoff $120,000,000
    25% Cannot Fix +$50,000,000payoff −$330,000,000
  - Pivot to Single Candidate −$50,000,000expected $6,000,000
    Chance: Pivot to Single Candidate
    35% Candidate Succeeds +$800,000,000payoff $450,000,000
    35% Marginal Result +$200,000,000payoff −$150,000,000
    30% Pivot Fails +$20,000,000payoff −$330,000,000
  - Sell Technology Assets +$100,000,000payoff −$200,000,000
- 15% Technology Fails +$30,000,000payoff −$270,000,000
Platform Only, Seek Partner −$120,000,000expected $123,500,000
Chance: Platform Validation (Lite)
- 50% Platform Validatedexpected $327,000,000
  Chance: Partner Search Outcome
  - 30% Major Pharma Partnerexpected $845,000,000
    Chance: Major Partner Development
    30% Multiple Products Launched +$2,000,000,000payoff $1,880,000,000
    40% Single Product Launched +$800,000,000payoff $680,000,000
    30% Partner Deprioritizes +$150,000,000payoff $30,000,000
  - 35% Mid-Size Partner +$400,000,000payoff $280,000,000
  - 35% No Partner Found +$50,000,000payoff −$70,000,000
- 30% Partial Results +$60,000,000payoff −$60,000,000
- 20% Technology Fails +$10,000,000payoff −$110,000,000
Single Candidate, Licensed Platform −$60,000,000expected $118,500,000
Chance: Single Candidate Trial
- 30% Strong Efficacyexpected $360,000,000
  Chance: Single: Competitive Position
  - 35% Differentiated Product +$800,000,000payoff $740,000,000
  - 40% Me-Too Product +$300,000,000payoff $240,000,000
  - 25% Outcompeted +$80,000,000payoff $20,000,000
- 35% Moderate Efficacy +$150,000,000payoff $90,000,000
- 35% Trial Failurepayoff −$60,000,000
Don't Investpayoff $0

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Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Notes
Full Platform Investment	$300,000,000	Platform + lead candidate through Phase 2
Platform Only Investment	$120,000,000	Technology development, no clinical candidates
Single Candidate Investment	$60,000,000	Licensed platform + one candidate
Platform Validation Rate	50-55%	Novel mRNA technology works as designed
Clinical Success (Strong)	25-35%	Vaccine shows strong efficacy and safety
Multi-Candidate Success	25%	2+ candidates succeed from pipeline
Govt Pandemic Contracts	35-40%	BARDA/CEPI stockpile agreements
Peak Value (Multi-Product)	$3-5B	Platform with multiple approved vaccines
Peak Value (Single Product)	$0.8-2B	One approved vaccine, market dependent
Major Pharma Partner Prob.	30%	Top-10 pharma licenses platform

The figures are illustrative: the companies and numbers are invented for teaching.

Try it in ModelChoice

Strategy Table. Compare full platform vs partner vs single candidate
Sensitivity Analysis. How do validation probability and govt contracts affect EV?
Risk Profile. Visualize the asymmetric upside of platform ownership

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An illustrative example: the figures are invented for teaching. Last updated 9 October 2026.