Vose SoftwareModelRisk Optimizer example · Agriculture and food
Craft Bakery: Sourdough Hydration
What hydration percentage yields the target crumb structure?
The optimisation problem
Crumb index on its target of 3.2
- Decide
- One hydration, 60% to 90%
- Goal
- Crumb index on its target of 3.2
- Limit
- None
- Engine
- GoalSeek
What the Optimizer found
| Starting plan | Optimizer’s plan | |
|---|---|---|
| Hydration (%) | 75 | 84.5 |
| Goal: Mean crumb openness index (target 3.20) | 2.16 | 3.19 |
ModelRisk Optimizer run on 13 Oct 2026: the Goal Seek engine, with Turbo simulation, tried 223 plans, each simulated with 10,000 samples, in 3 seconds. Both plans above were then simulated again with the same 10,000 samples.
What the workbook models
A bakery targets a specific crumb-openness index. Openness rises smoothly with hydration (given flour strength), with bake-to-bake noise (normal).
Decision, objective and constraint
- Decision
- 1 continuous hydration %, 60 to 90
- Objective
- Reach a Target crumb index of 3.2 (TargetValue mode)
- Constraints
- none
The engine: GoalSeek
A single variable with a TargetValue objective and no constraints then Method=Auto routes to GoalSeek (bracket + bisection to the target).
The model
Find the single hydration level that hits the target crumb-openness index.
InputDecision (the Optimizer changes it)Calculated or uncertain (sampled each iteration)Objective
| Hydration (%): decision | 75.00 |
|---|---|
| Flour strength | 0.90 |
| Crumb openness index: objective | calculated |
| Target crumb index | 3.20 |
Decision cells hold starting values: the workbook opens at the starting plan above, and the Optimizer finds its plan when you run it. The figures are illustrative.
Run it yourself. Open the workbook with ModelRisk, open the Optimizer from the ribbon (the saved task opens with it) and press Start.
Glossary
- Hydration
- water as a percentage of flour weight
Find similar models
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- Uses
Download the workbook and run the Optimizer. It opens in Excel with ModelRisk.
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An illustrative example: the figures are invented for teaching. Last updated 9 October 2026.