ModelRisk vs Oracle Crystal Ball
Easy to switch. Better to work with.
The free converter brings your Crystal Ball models across, optimisation models too. In ModelRisk every input is an Excel formula anyone can read. Every licence includes the Optimizer and Turbo simulation.
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Built-in converter
Every ModelRisk licence includes a free Crystal Ball converter. It writes a ModelRisk copy of each workbook and brings optimisation models across too. See what changes ↓
16+ Crystal Ball assumption=VoseTriangle(14,16,19) -
Models anyone can read
Each input is an Excel function in its cell, drawn from 136 distributions, 34 time series models and 14 copulas. Every licence adds the Optimizer and multi-core Turbo simulation.
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One published price
ModelRisk costs at most €1,550 per user per year, with simulation and optimisation in the same licence. What each licence includes ↓
Crystal BallSimulationDecision Optimizer option ModelRiskSimulation, Optimizer and Turbo in one licence
Crystal Ball editions as listed on oracle.com, retrieved October 2026. ModelRisk: published maximum per user per year, before volume and multi-year discounts.
What happens to a Crystal Ball model?
Where does the distribution live?
In Crystal Ball, a cell such as Marketing costs holds a plain number. Crystal Ball keeps the distribution in its own data and enters a random value into the cell on every trial. The converter writes that distribution into the cell as a ModelRisk function, in a converted copy of the workbook.
Kept by Crystal Ball, outside the formula
Written in the cell’s formula
Triangular, minimum 14, likeliest 16, maximum 19
What about colleagues still on Crystal Ball?
You don’t have to move everyone on the same day. Models can travel both ways while you switch.
Their models open on your side
Convert any Crystal Ball workbook a colleague sends you. The converter makes a ModelRisk copy and leaves their original as it was.
Your models open on theirs
The SWAP tool sends a copy where every ModelRisk function becomes a fixed, annotated value, so anyone can open it in plain Excel.
How do the method libraries compare?
In ModelRisk every method is an Excel function. A reviewer reads the model where it sits, and Excel’s own auditing tools trace it like any other formula.
| Method | ModelRisk | Crystal Ball |
|---|---|---|
| Where the model lives | Excel functions in the cells, such as VoseNormal and VoseTriangle | Assumptions set in Crystal Ball’s dialogs; an assumption cell holds a plain value |
| Probability distributions | 136, each an Excel function | A distribution gallery, plus custom distributions |
| Correlation | 14 copulas, which can be fitted to data | Correlation coefficients between pairs of assumptions |
| Time series | 34 time series models, simulated in the model | CB Predictor time-series forecasting |
| Distribution fitting | Maximum likelihood, ranked by SIC, HQIC and AIC | Goodness-of-fit ranking, plus a Batch Fit tool |
| Frequency-severity in one cell | Monte Carlo, Panjer, FFT or de Pril | Not among Oracle’s Crystal Ball feature overviews |
| Optimisation | ModelRisk Optimizer, in every licence | Decision Optimizer (OptQuest), an option for Crystal Ball |
| AI support | ModelRisk MCP, free and open source: Claude and other AI assistants build, fit, simulate and read models in your open workbook | None that we found on Oracle’s site or in its documentation |
Crystal Ball column: Oracle’s Crystal Ball page and the feature overviews on its technical information page, retrieved October 2026. Where Oracle doesn’t publish something, we say so rather than guess. AI support: we searched Oracle’s site and documentation in October 2026 and found no AI feature for Crystal Ball. All of ModelRisk’s methods: ModelRisk key features.
Will my models run faster?
Switch Turbo on and they often run many times faster than on ModelRisk’s classic engine. ModelRisk analyses the workbook once, compiles only the cells that change between iterations and runs them on every processor core, without Excel recalculating. Turbo is included in every ModelRisk licence.
Crystal Ball used to offer Extreme Speed, a faster run mode from PSI Technology. Oracle removed it in May 2017, in release 11.1.2.4.850, so Crystal Ball now runs simulations at normal speed. Oracle’s note on the change
Press Run both to start the two engines together.
- Before a workbook’s first Turbo run, converted or not, ModelRisk offers to check that Turbo reproduces the classic engine on it, and keeps the result in the workbook.
- Start Turbo Simulation is on the Start drop-down. You can also make Turbo the default for a workbook, or for every new model.
- Large workbooks take a few seconds to prepare the first time, then run at full speed.
Simulation phase only: 89 models from our internal test library, same workbook, 1,000 iterations, Turbo against ModelRisk’s classic engine. Excludes the one-time model analysis and opening the workbook. The gain depends on the model’s structure. How Turbo works
What about Decision Optimizer?
Crystal Ball users who optimise need Decision Optimizer, an option for Crystal Ball, or the Suite that has both. In ModelRisk the Optimizer is part of every licence.
Optimisation is in every licence
ModelRisk Optimizer searches for the decision with the best simulated result, such as the highest mean profit or the lowest chance of a loss. The converter brings Crystal Ball optimisation models across, and the whole optimisation can run on the Turbo engine.
Want to compare them yourself? Our ten optimisation test models come in ModelRisk and Crystal Ball versions, with OptQuest already set up, so you can run them in both. Download the test models
ModelRisk OptimizerDecision trees in a separate add-in
For decision trees, Vose Software’s ModelChoice add-in draws the tree right on the worksheet. It also tests how robust the best choice is, and weighs choices on several criteria.
ModelChoiceWhat do ModelRisk and Crystal Ball cost?
ModelRisk costs at most €1,550 per user per year, and the price is on our website. Oracle sells Crystal Ball in editions, with optimisation as an option, and lists prices in the Oracle Store.
- Crystal BallMonte Carlo simulation, time-series forecasting and reports
- Crystal Ball Decision OptimizerAn option for Crystal Ball that adds optimisation
- Crystal Ball SuiteCrystal Ball and Decision Optimizer together
- Classroom EditionFor students and faculty
Prices: the Oracle Store, linked from Oracle’s Crystal Ball page.
- Monte Carlo simulation with 136 distributions
- 34 time series models and 14 copulas
- Distribution fitting
- ModelRisk Optimizer
- Turbo simulation engine
- Crystal Ball and @RISK converters
How actively are the two tools developed?
Crystal Ball is still version 11.1, the version Oracle released in July 2008. In more than 18 years there has been no new minor version, no 11.2 and no 12, only updates to 11.1. The latest came in August 2024. ModelRisk gets new releases through the year.
for more than 18 years. No Crystal Ball 11.2, no Crystal Ball 12: only updates to 11.1.
New releases come out through the year. Recent ones added the Optimizer to every licence, extended the Turbo engine, gave Tornado charts new options and sped up multivariate time series.
What’s new in ModelRisk- Oracle removed Crystal Ball’s faster run mode, Extreme Speed, in 2017. Will my models run faster?
- From the 2022 release on, Oracle’s compatibility matrix marks Crystal Ball’s links to Oracle’s own Hyperion planning tools (Hyperion Planning, Hyperion Strategic Finance, Smart View and Essbase) as NA. If your models rely on that link, check it with Oracle first.
- Oracle’s public downloads page still offers the May 2022 release. The Crystal Ball overview that Oracle links from its technical page is dated 2008.
- Oracle still sells Crystal Ball and offers a free trial.
Sources: the Crystal Ball compatibility matrix on Oracle’s technical information page, Oracle’s Crystal Ball downloads page and Oracle’s Crystal Ball new features, retrieved October 2026.
How hard is it to move existing Crystal Ball models?
Not hard. The 15-day trial is long enough to convert your key models and run both tools side by side before you decide.
Install the trial
Fifteen days, fully functional, converter included.
Download free 15-day trialConvert your key models
The converter writes a ModelRisk copy of each workbook and leaves the original as it was.
See what changesCompare on your own models
Run both on the same models and compare the results. For optimisation, start with our ten test models.
Download the test models
What are the main alternatives to Crystal Ball?
The main Crystal Ball alternatives for Monte Carlo simulation in Excel are ModelRisk (136 distributions, a published price and a free converter for Crystal Ball models), Lumivero’s @RISK (long-established, priced above ModelRisk), Frontline’s Analytic Solver, low-cost add-ins such as RiskAMP for simple models, and Python or R for teams that work in code. Which fits depends on how complex your models are and who has to read them.
Frequently asked questions
Can I convert Crystal Ball models to ModelRisk?
Yes. Every ModelRisk licence includes a free converter for Crystal Ball models. It makes a copy of the workbook that uses ModelRisk functions and leaves your original as it was. It brings optimisation models across too: objectives, adjustable cells, constraints and groups.
What happens to my Crystal Ball assumptions and forecasts?
Crystal Ball keeps each assumption’s distribution in its own data and enters a random value into the cell on every trial. In ModelRisk the distribution is the cell’s formula, such as =VoseTriangle(14,16,19), and an output is marked with VoseOutput in its formula. Anyone who opens the workbook can read the model in the formula bar.
Can colleagues without ModelRisk open my models?
Yes. The SWAP tool makes a plain-Excel copy where every ModelRisk function becomes a fixed, annotated value, so anyone can open it in Excel.
Which has more probability distributions, ModelRisk or Crystal Ball?
ModelRisk has 136 probability distributions, 34 time series models and 14 copulas. Each is an ordinary Excel function. Oracle’s Crystal Ball overviews describe a gallery of distributions plus custom ones. So check that the ones your models use are on ModelRisk’s list.
Can converted models use the Turbo engine?
Yes, where Turbo supports the functions the model uses. Run it from Start Turbo Simulation, or make Turbo its default. Before the first Turbo run, ModelRisk offers to check that Turbo reproduces the classic engine on that workbook. Across 89 of our test models, Turbo’s simulation phase ran a median of about 200 times faster than the classic engine. The gain depends on the model.
Does ModelRisk replace Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer?
For optimisation under uncertainty, yes. ModelRisk Optimizer is in every ModelRisk licence, so there is no separate edition to buy, and the converter brings Crystal Ball optimisation models across. Our ten optimisation test models come in ModelRisk and Crystal Ball versions, so you can compare the two yourself.
What does ModelRisk cost compared with Crystal Ball?
ModelRisk costs at most €1,550 per user per year, published on our price list, with volume and multi-year discounts. Every licence includes the Optimizer and Turbo. Oracle sells Crystal Ball, Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer and the Crystal Ball Suite, which combines the two, and lists their prices in the Oracle Store, linked from its Crystal Ball page.
Is Oracle Crystal Ball still developed?
Oracle still sells Crystal Ball and offers a free trial, but it has seen very little development for years. It is still version 11.1, as it was in July 2008: in more than 18 years there has been no Crystal Ball 11.2 or 12, only updates to 11.1, the latest in August 2024. ModelRisk has been developed continuously since 2008 and gets new releases through the year.
Does Crystal Ball have AI support?
We found no AI feature for Crystal Ball on Oracle’s website or in its documentation, and its latest update is from August 2024. ModelRisk works with AI assistants through ModelRisk MCP, which is free and open source. Claude Desktop and other assistants that support MCP can build the model, fit distributions, run the simulation and read back the results in your open workbook.
Does Crystal Ball have a free trial?
Yes. Oracle offers a free Crystal Ball trial from its Crystal Ball page, downloaded after signing in with an Oracle account. ModelRisk has a fully functional 15-day free trial, Crystal Ball converter included.
Try it on your own Crystal Ball models
Download the free 15-day trial, convert a model you know well and compare the results. If you’d rather see it first, we’ll walk you through it on a call.
Oracle and Crystal Ball are registered trademarks of Oracle and/or its affiliates. OptQuest is a trademark of OptTek Systems, Inc. @RISK is a trademark of Lumivero, LLC. Vose Software is not affiliated with Oracle. Crystal Ball details are from oracle.com, retrieved October 2026, and may change.