Quantitative risk virtual summit 4th edition

14:00 🎤 Welcome Remarks – Craig Ferri & Timour Koupeev
Opening remarks and introduction to the summit themes.
 

14:15 📊 Product Presentation: Improvements in the Vose Software Offering – Timour Koupeev
Discover the latest improvements in the Vose Software ecosystem, including new features and enhancement to products.  This version will transform the way alternatives are evaluated. Let's help decision-makers compare options, visualize trade-offs, and select the best alternative.
 

14:55 ⏸️ Pause
 

15:00 🏭 Keynote - "All models are wrong, some are useful" (George Box) - Graeme Keith
Models are not built to be right; they are built to be useful by supporting real decisions.  Good modelling starts by framing objectives, uncertainties, decisions, and available resources before seeking empirical precision.

Causal mapping connects these elements by showing how uncertainty flows through the decisions that shape outcomes. Using a daily commute example, this presentation demonstrates how causal chains can guide fit-for-purpose modelling.
The goal is to turn models from descriptive exercises into actionable tools for better decisions.
 

16:00 ⏸️ Pause
 

16:05 🔹 From Gut Feeling to Monte Carlo Simulation – Guz Vinueza
A practical and accessible session showing how professionals can move beyond intuition and subjective estimates toward structured uncertainty modeling. The presentation will introduce the logic of Monte Carlo simulation, expert elicitation, calibration, and how probabilistic thinking can improve business and project decisions.
 

16:40 ⏸️ Pause
 

16:45 👋 Closing Remarks – Craig Ferri
Final reflections, key takeaways, and closing of the summit.