Example models
to better understand ModelRisk
Risk Analysis Example models in Excel
In the table below you will find a number of example models that can be run with ModelRisk. Each risk analysis model includes a comprehensive description of the problem, how the model addresses the problem, and how the results provide answers to the decision questions. You can filter the table by level of difficulty, or industry.
If you want to learn more about risk analysis modelling techniques, please take a look at David Vose’s course on Udemy:
Essentials of business risk analysis modeling
Where you will learn:
- How risk analysis modelling is used in business
- The probability distributions and math needed to perform a business risk analysis
- How to evaluate the aggregate exposure from a set of risks in a register
- How to complete a financial risk analysis for a business investment
- How to audit a risk analysis model identifying errors and interpreting formulae
- How to create, interpret and present risk analysis reports to decision-makers
Name | Description | Difficulty | Industry | Details |
---|---|---|---|---|
Missile development cost estimation | Risk analysis of the cost of development of a missile system | 2 | Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Missile-Development-Cost-Estimation.php |
Oil in place and reserve estimation | Risk-based estimate of the oil in place and the reserve estimate for an oil reserve | 1 | Energy , Engineering and construction | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Oil-In-Place-And-Reserve-Estimation.php |
Oil reserve declining production rate model | The uncertainty of the declining production rate from an oil reserve | 1 | Energy , Engineering and construction | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Declining-Production-Rate-Uncertainty.php |
Nearest neighbor distance | Probability distribution of distance to a hazard occurring randomly in space | 2 | Statistical techniques | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Nearest-Neighbor-Distance.php |
Cost of building a house | A simple model to estimate the cost of a construction project | 1 | Statistical techniques | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Cost-Of-Building-A-House.php |
Tranched insurance policy payout | Probability distribution of insurance payouts from a tranched policy | 2 | Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Tranched-Insurance-Policy-Payout.php |
Payout distribution for an insurance policy | Probability distribution of aggregate payout from an insurance policy with simple limits | 1 | Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Payout-Distribution-For-An-Insurance-Policy.php |
Payout distribution for complex insurance policy | Probability distribution of aggregate payout from an insurance policy with complex conditions | 3 | Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Payout-Distribution-For-Complex-Insurance-Policy.php |
Payout distribution for an insurance policy | Capital charge calculation for a bank to cover fraud at a defined level of coverage | 4 | Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Bank-Capital-Charge-Calculation.php |
Lifetime of a device | Determining the lifetime distribution for a system based on the life expectancy of its components | 1 | Statistical techniques | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Lifetime-Distribution-Of-A-Device.php |
Estimating the Operational Risk (OpRisk) capital charge for a financial institute | Capital charge calculation for a bank to cover a set of operational risk events | 3 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Operational-Risk-Estimation.php |
Aggregate moments | How to calculate the moments of an aggregate distribution | 3 | Banking and finance , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Aggregate-Moments.php |
BMA | Using Bayesian model averaging for fitting probability models | 3 | Banking and finance , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques , Technology | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Bayesian-Model-Averaging.php |
Bounded random walk | Simple random forecast within practical limits | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Random-Forecast.php |
Cascading risks | Modeling a set of inter-connected risks | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Modeling-Interconnected-Risks.php |
CLT risk portfolio approximation | Using Central Limit Theorem to give an approximate total impact from a set i=of independent risks | 3 | Banking and finance , Engineering and construction , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/CLT-Risk-Portfolio-Approximation.php |
Correlated insurance portfolio | Modeling the exposure from a portfolio of correlated insurance policies | 4 | Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlated-Insurance-Portfolio.php |
Correlated risk portfolio | Modeling a set of inter-connected risks | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlated-Risk-Portfolio.php |
correlating interest and mortgage rates | Correlating two variables using the envelope method | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlating-Interest-And-Mortgage-Rates.php |
Correlation using look-up tables | Correlating many variables using an external influencing factor | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlation-Using-Lookup-Tables.php |
Cost model | A simple itemised cost model | 1 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Cost-Model.php |
Credit risk separated | Modeling credit risk where loss is a fraction of the exposure | 3 | Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Credit-Risk-Separated.php |
Credit risk single portfolio | Modeling credit risk where loss is whole of exposure | 2 | Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Credit-Risk-Single-Portfolio.php |
Election | Translating survey data into probabilities with uncertainty | 3 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Modeling-Election.php |
Finite market | Simple modeling technique to forecast sales for a limited market size | 1 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Sales-For-A-Limited-Market.php |
Hospital | Very simple model of a project duration | 1 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Project-Duration-Simple-Model.php |
Leading indicator | Forecast technique using lead indicators with uncertainty | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Technique-Lead-Indicators-With-Uncertainty.php |
Marital status in 25 years | Forecast technique moving individuals in a population between different states with Markov chains | 3 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Technique-With-Markov-Chains.php |
New competitors | Forecasting technique for modeling the effect on sales of a new competitor | 1 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Technique-For-Modeling-The-Effect-Of-Sales.php |
NPV of a capital investment | Example business cashflow model | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Business-Cashflow-Model.php |
Operational risk | Modeling the financial exposure from a set of operational risks using FFT | 4 | Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Financial-Risk-Exposure-Using-FFT.php |
Pareto extremes | Illustration of modeling tools for determining extremes of random variables | 3 | Banking and finance , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Random-Variables-Extremes-Modeling-Tools.php |
Poisson random walk | Simple forecast model for random events with a trend in incidence rate | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Forecast-Model-For-Random-Events.php |
Poisson sales with competitor | Simple forecast model where sales occur randomly and a competitor may enter the market | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Forecast-Model-For-Random-Sales.php |
Premium calculation | Determine the premium that should be charged for an insurance policy under several different methodologies | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Insurance-Model-Premium-Calculation-Model.php |
Probability of ruin | Classic model to evaluate if and when a fund will run out of money from random claims | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Probability-Of-Ruin-Evaluation-Model.php |
Project schedule 1 | Very simple Finish-Start network for project schedule | 1 | Project risk management | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Finish-Start-Network-For-Project-Schedule.php |
Projected cures | 2 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Projected-Cures.php | |
Loss reserve calculation for insurance companies | Runoff simulation model for outstanding claims on a fund | 3 | Insurance and reinsurance | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Runoff-Simulation-Model-For-Outstanding-Claims-On-A-Fund.php |
Sales with maximum | Forecast of number of sales with limited growth | 1 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecast-Of-Number-Of-Sales-With-Limited-Growth.php |
TV series profits | Profit estimate from a set of expanding investments | 4 | Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities | ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Profit-Estimate-From-A-Set-Of-Expanding-Investments.php |