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Example models

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Risk Analysis Example models in Excel

In the table below you will find a number of example models that can be run with ModelRisk. Each risk analysis model includes a comprehensive description of the problem, how the model addresses the problem, and how the results provide answers to the decision questions. You can filter the table by level of difficulty, or industry.

If you want to learn more about risk analysis modelling techniques, please take a look at David Vose’s course on Udemy:

Essentials of business risk analysis modeling

Where you will learn:

  • How risk analysis modelling is used in business
  • The probability distributions and math needed to perform a business risk analysis
  • How to evaluate the aggregate exposure from a set of risks in a register
  • How to complete a financial risk analysis for a business investment
  • How to audit a risk analysis model identifying errors and interpreting formulae
  • How to create, interpret and present risk analysis reports to decision-makers

Name Description Difficulty Industry Details
Missile development cost estimation Risk analysis of the cost of development of a missile system 2 Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Missile-Development-Cost-Estimation.php
Oil in place and reserve estimation Risk-based estimate of the oil in place and the reserve estimate for an oil reserve 1 Energy , Engineering and construction ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Oil-In-Place-And-Reserve-Estimation.php
Oil reserve declining production rate model The uncertainty of the declining production rate from an oil reserve 1 Energy , Engineering and construction ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Declining-Production-Rate-Uncertainty.php
Nearest neighbor distance Probability distribution of distance to a hazard occurring randomly in space 2 Statistical techniques ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Nearest-Neighbor-Distance.php
Cost of building a house A simple model to estimate the cost of a construction project 1 Statistical techniques ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Cost-Of-Building-A-House.php
Tranched insurance policy payout Probability distribution of insurance payouts from a tranched policy 2 Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Tranched-Insurance-Policy-Payout.php
Payout distribution for an insurance policy Probability distribution of aggregate payout from an insurance policy with simple limits 1 Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Payout-Distribution-For-An-Insurance-Policy.php
Payout distribution for complex insurance policy Probability distribution of aggregate payout from an insurance policy with complex conditions 3 Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Payout-Distribution-For-Complex-Insurance-Policy.php
Payout distribution for an insurance policy Capital charge calculation for a bank to cover fraud at a defined level of coverage 4 Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Bank-Capital-Charge-Calculation.php
Lifetime of a device Determining the lifetime distribution for a system based on the life expectancy of its components 1 Statistical techniques ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Lifetime-Distribution-Of-A-Device.php
Estimating the Operational Risk (OpRisk) capital charge for a financial institute Capital charge calculation for a bank to cover a set of operational risk events 3 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Operational-Risk-Estimation.php
Aggregate moments How to calculate the moments of an aggregate distribution 3 Banking and finance , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Aggregate-Moments.php
BMA Using Bayesian model averaging for fitting probability models 3 Banking and finance , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques , Technology ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Bayesian-Model-Averaging.php
Bounded random walk Simple random forecast within practical limits 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Random-Forecast.php
Cascading risks Modeling a set of inter-connected risks 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Modeling-Interconnected-Risks.php
CLT risk portfolio approximation Using Central Limit Theorem to give an approximate total impact from a set i=of independent risks 3 Banking and finance , Engineering and construction , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/CLT-Risk-Portfolio-Approximation.php
Correlated insurance portfolio Modeling the exposure from a portfolio of correlated insurance policies 4 Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlated-Insurance-Portfolio.php
Correlated risk portfolio Modeling a set of inter-connected risks 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlated-Risk-Portfolio.php
correlating interest and mortgage rates Correlating two variables using the envelope method 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlating-Interest-And-Mortgage-Rates.php
Correlation using look-up tables Correlating many variables using an external influencing factor 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Correlation-Using-Lookup-Tables.php
Cost model A simple itemised cost model 1 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Cost-Model.php
Credit risk separated Modeling credit risk where loss is a fraction of the exposure 3 Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Credit-Risk-Separated.php
Credit risk single portfolio Modeling credit risk where loss is whole of exposure 2 Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Credit-Risk-Single-Portfolio.php
Election Translating survey data into probabilities with uncertainty 3 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Modeling-Election.php
Finite market Simple modeling technique to forecast sales for a limited market size 1 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Sales-For-A-Limited-Market.php
Hospital Very simple model of a project duration 1 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Project-Duration-Simple-Model.php
Leading indicator Forecast technique using lead indicators with uncertainty 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Technique-Lead-Indicators-With-Uncertainty.php
Marital status in 25 years Forecast technique moving individuals in a population between different states with Markov chains 3 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Technique-With-Markov-Chains.php
New competitors Forecasting technique for modeling the effect on sales of a new competitor 1 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecasting-Technique-For-Modeling-The-Effect-Of-Sales.php
NPV of a capital investment Example business cashflow model 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Business-Cashflow-Model.php
Operational risk Modeling the financial exposure from a set of operational risks using FFT 4 Banking and finance , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Financial-Risk-Exposure-Using-FFT.php
Pareto extremes Illustration of modeling tools for determining extremes of random variables 3 Banking and finance , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Random-Variables-Extremes-Modeling-Tools.php
Poisson random walk Simple forecast model for random events with a trend in incidence rate 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Forecast-Model-For-Random-Events.php
Poisson sales with competitor Simple forecast model where sales occur randomly and a competitor may enter the market 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Forecast-Model-For-Random-Sales.php
Premium calculation Determine the premium that should be charged for an insurance policy under several different methodologies 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Project risk management , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Insurance-Model-Premium-Calculation-Model.php
Probability of ruin Classic model to evaluate if and when a fund will run out of money from random claims 2 Banking and finance , Business , Insurance and reinsurance , Statistical techniques ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Probability-Of-Ruin-Evaluation-Model.php
Project schedule 1 Very simple Finish-Start network for project schedule 1 Project risk management ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Simple-Finish-Start-Network-For-Project-Schedule.php
Projected cures 2 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Projected-Cures.php
Loss reserve calculation for insurance companies Runoff simulation model for outstanding claims on a fund 3 Insurance and reinsurance ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Runoff-Simulation-Model-For-Outstanding-Claims-On-A-Fund.php
Sales with maximum Forecast of number of sales with limited growth 1 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Forecast-Of-Number-Of-Sales-With-Limited-Growth.php
TV series profits Profit estimate from a set of expanding investments 4 Banking and finance , Business , Energy , Engineering and construction , Health and epidemiology , Insurance and reinsurance , Pharmaceutical , Retail , Statistical techniques , Technology , Utilities ../../Risk-In-Excel/Risk-Analysis-Example-Models-In-Excel/Profit-Estimate-From-A-Set-Of-Expanding-Investments.php