Below you will find a number of example models that can be run with ModelRisk. Each risk analysis model includes a comprehensive description of the problem, how the model addresses the problem, and how the results provide answers to the decision questions. You can filter the collection by level of difficulty or industry.
If you want to learn more about risk analysis modelling techniques, please take a look at David Vose’s course on Udemy: Essentials of business risk analysis modeling
In this course, you will discover how risk analysis modelling is applied in business, learn about the probability distributions and mathematics involved, and understand how to evaluate aggregate risk exposure. You’ll also explore financial risk analysis for investments, master auditing and interpreting risk models, and gain skills to create and present risk analysis reports for decision-makers.
Risk analysis of the cost of development of a missile system
Risk-based estimate of the oil in place and the reserve estimate for an oil reserve
The uncertainty of the declining production rate from an oil reserve
Probability distribution of distance to a hazard occurring randomly in space
A simple model to estimate the cost of a construction project
Probability distribution of insurance payouts from a tranched policy
Probability distribution of aggregate payout from an insurance policy with simple limits
Probability distribution of aggregate payout from an insurance policy with complex conditions
Capital charge calculation for a bank to cover fraud at a defined level of coverage
Determining the lifetime distribution for a system based on the life expectancy of its components
Capital charge calculation for a bank to cover a set of operational risk events
How to calculate the moments of an aggregate distribution
Using Bayesian model averaging for fitting probability models
Simple random forecast within practical limits
Modeling a set of inter-connected risks
Using Central Limit Theorem to give an approximate total impact from a set i=of independent risks
Modeling the exposure from a portfolio of correlated insurance policies
Correlating two variables using the envelope method
Correlating many variables using an external influencing factor
A simple itemised cost model
Modeling credit risk where loss is a fraction of the exposure
Modeling credit risk where loss is whole of exposure
Translating survey data into probabilities with uncertainty
Simple modeling technique to forecast sales for a limited market size
Very simple model of a project duration
Forecast technique using lead indicators with uncertainty
Forecast technique moving individuals in a population between different states with Markov chains
Forecasting technique for modeling the effect on sales of a new competitor
Example business cashflow model
Modeling the financial exposure from a set of operational risks using FFT
Illustration of modeling tools for determining extremes of random variables
Simple forecast model for random events with a trend in incidence rate
Simple forecast model where sales occur randomly and a competitor may enter the market
Determine the premium that should be charged for an insurance policy under several different methodologies
Classic model to evaluate if and when a fund will run out of money from random claims
Very simple Finish-Start network for project schedule
Runoff simulation model for outstanding claims on a fund
Forecast of number of sales with limited growth
Profit estimate from a set of expanding investments