Creating a new scenario for the risk analysis model | Vose Software

Creating a new scenario for the risk analysis model

Models that have been uploaded to ModelRisk Cloud can have one or more parameters that can be changed by a User. The adjustable parameters may reflect decision variables, like the percentage ownership to take in a joint venture. They can also represent different scenarios one might wish to investigate, for example using different oil and gas price forecasts to represent different energy cost scenarios.

A Version of a Model is a copy of the Model saved with any changes made to the Model’s parameters. Note that if a Model has no parameters that can be altered, you will still need to save a ‘Version’, even if it is the only one that can be made from the Model.

To create a Version, go to the MODELS view and click the hyperlinked name of the model (example highlighted):

This will open the Versions view for this model:

Click the  button to add a new Version, which will open a view similar to the one below:

On the left is the spreadsheet simulator, which will look very similar to the design created within Excel by the modeler. It shows any sheets in the workbook that the modeler has not hidden, and will allow you to edit any cells that the modeler has not protected. In this example, the editable cells have been identified by the modeler by using a colored background and different font, which is recommended practice.

Edit the values to correspond to the scenario you wish to create. Give a name to the model Version (if this is the first time a Version of the model has been created, it may be useful to enter parameters that reflect a baseline case and give it a name like ‘Baseline’ or ‘Default’), and set the number of samples that should be run. Typically, one runs 1000-5000 samples to achieve the level of precision needed for most business decisions, but if the tail shape is very important you may wish to run many more. If the model is to be rerun automatically according to a schedule (for example to include new data in a database), select Schedule Run and follow the available options. Note that the start time you select will be in reference to the server time, which is shown at the bottom of the window. This can be important to account for if your server is located in a different time zone.

Once you click Save, the Version will be added to the table with the details you have entered.



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