Course title: Risk Analysis for Managers

Course overview

This one-day course is designed to introduce the principles and applications of risk analysis to decision-makers. It shows participants how to instigate a risk assessment, manage its progress, and use and communicate its results to make more-informed decisions to efficiently manage risk.

Who should attend

Senior managers faced with understanding and controlling risk, or making risk-based decisions.

Course content

Day 1

• Introduction to risk analysis and management
• Introduction to risk modelling and simulation
• Building models and using the results - some simple examples
• Presenting, interpreting and using risk analysis results
• Healthy cynicism

Risks and opportunities

What risk analysis is, and why it can help

The steps to performing an analysis

Basic probability ideas

The basic probability rules

Probability distributions

Risk analysis techniques - their strengths and weaknesses:

Semi-quantitative methods

Monte Carlo simulation vs scenario analysis

Example: why projects go over budget

Decision trees, event trees

Example: the value of obtaining extra information

The resources needed to perform a risk analysis

Understanding and using risk analysis results

Evaluating your options

Risk attitudes

Multi-attribute decisions

Decision sensitivity

Optimising your risk management strategy

What risk analysis can and cannot do

The importance of communication

Training material

All lecture notes are provided as PowerPoint files. A CD of these files is provided to each participant. Printed handouts are also provided. The CD also contains all model files produced for the course. Any extra models developed during the course are downloadable from a private page on this web site dedicated to the course.

Prerequisites

All models are developed using Microsoft Excel and ModelRisk, but can be provided using a different Excel Monte Carlo add-in by prior arrangement. It is essential that all participants are familiar with Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Windows.

Teaching philosophy

All of Vose Software's courses aim to help the participants understand (rather than 'learn') risk analysis, which can only be achieved through a relaxed, informal and interactive environment, through plenty of examples and hands-on exercises where participants apply and adapt what they have learned.

Contact us

If you are interested in this course, feel free to fill in the contact form and one of our staff members will get in touch with you within 2 business days!