Course title: Advanced risk analysis modeling

Duration: 2 days

Course overview

This course is designed to improve the technical knowledge and understanding of people already familiar with risk analysis modeling.

Who should attend

The course provides an in-depth understanding of risk analysis modeling for general business problems. The material is sufficient for people wishing to perform quite sophisticated risk analyses. Participants should already have attended the Basic risk modeling course or be comfortable that they have the equivalent knowledge.

Course content

Day 1

• Review of key probability distributions, their underpinning principles and applications
• Multivariate distributions
• Example models using specific distributions
• Review of all correlation models (copulas)
• Aggregate modeling
• Some example exercises

• Modeling risk portfolios (risk registers)
• Eliciting and combining expert estimates of uncertainty
• Eliciting expert estimates of time series with uncertainty
• Modeling extremes
• Optimization under uncertainty
• More example exercises
• Wrap up

Training material

All lecture notes are provided as PowerPoint files. A CD of these files is provided to each participant. Printed handouts are also provided. The CD also contains all model files produced for the course. Any extra models developed during the course are downloadable from a private page on this web site dedicated to the course.

Prerequisites

Participants should already have attended the Basic risk modeling course or be comfortable that they have the equivalent knowledge. The two courses can be combined into one five day course. All models are developed using Microsoft Excel and ModelRisk, but models be provided using a different Excel Monte Carlo add-in by prior arrangement providing the software has the necessary functionality. It is essential that all participants are familiar with Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Windows.

Teaching philosophy

All of Vose Software's courses aim to help the participants understand (rather than 'learn') risk analysis, which can only be achieved through a relaxed, informal and interactive environment, through plenty of examples and hands-on exercises where participants apply and adapt what they have learned.

Contact us

If you are interested in this course, feel free to fill in the contact form and one of our staff members will get in touch with you within 2 business days!