Example projects per industry

Energy and Utilities

PROJECT COST RISK ASSESSMENT

Problem and solution

A large energy firm planned to build a $500M+ liquid natural gas pipeline. There were considerable risks associated with the project. Based on experience, the firm knew that project costs often exceed budgeted costs by a considerable margin. The firm commissioned Vose Risk Consulting to perform a project cost risk analysis.

FLEET RELIABILITY, MAINTENANCE AND REPLACEMENT

Problem and solution

A large coal-fired power station company wished to optimize the maintenance and upgrade schedule for its power unit fleet to maximize its ability to meet its delivery obligations and its ability to benefit from high seasonal spot prices whilst meeting its capital expenditure budgets. Vose Risk Consulting used reliability models, coupled with historic failure rates and electricity price forecasts to optimize the capital expenditure and work schedule to maximize revenue.

Food Safety and Human Health

SALMONELLA RISK ASSESSMENT

Problem and solution

Risk analysts at Vose Software have just completed a risk assessment for the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) entitled: “A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment of Salmonella spp. in broiler meat production”. The risk assessment determined the amount of human salmonellosis that could be attributed to broiler meat and other sources of Salmonella. The unique aspect of this piece of work is that it evaluated the source attribution for each Member State, and accounted for trade and travelling between the Member States.

The published report, which includes the code for the OpenBUGS model used, can be accessed from EFSA’s web site here.

ANTIMICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Problem and solution

Given concerns about human risk from antibiotic-resistant bacteria from using antibiotics in animals, the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) was faced with the question of whether to continue to allow use of fluoroquinolones in poultry. Vose Risk Consulting produced a robust and unique risk assessment reflecting the specific qualities of resistance determinants in Campylobacter which lead to FDAs decision to withdrawal of approval of the antimicrobial in poultry. The decision was challenged in court and Vose Risk Consulting helped successfully defend the risk assessment.

Epidemiology and Animal Health

RISK OF IMPORTATION OF FRESH SALMON

Problem and solution

Canada and Australia were in a long-running dispute over Australia 's ban of Canadian ocean-caught salmon due to a perceived risk of the introduction of salmonid disease from Canada to Australia. Australia was using a qualitative risk assessment to support their argument for the ban. Vose Risk Consulting demonstrated in a WTO court that the Canadian product represented an insignificant risk and Australia was required to remove its ban.

RISK OF PWMS THROUGH IMPORTATION OF PIG SEMEN

Problem and solution

The important trade between two countries of pig semen was in jeopardy because of the emergence of PCV2 virus in semen from the exporting country. Theories on the causal factors behind PMWS include PCV2. Vose Risk Consulting reviewed all the theories and reported cases of PMWS and determined the combination of causal factors, and was able to recommend a protocol that would minimize the spread of the syndrome to the importing country.

DEFENSE OF A NATIONAL ANIMAL IMPORTATION GUIDELINES

Problem and solution

Australia developed a comprehensive protocol and standards to determine in a consistent fashion whether animals and animal products should be allowed into Australia. Australia’s own pig industry challenged the protocol in court. Vose Risk Consulting successfully argued that the protocol was robust, consistent, met WTO requirements and was ‘best in class’.

Mining & Metals

TRAINING IN QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED TO MINING

Problem and solution

A leading mining technology consulting company wanted to start using risk analysis more in their project analyses, and set up a risk analysis department within their company to do this. They had many industry-specific questions, and were in particular interested in good ways to communicate the merits of the Quantitative Risk Analysis approach to decision makers.

OPTIMISING PRODUCTION GRADE OF ALUMINUM

Problem and solution

One of the largest aluminum manufacturers in the world needed a method to determine the blend of pots of molten aluminum with varying levels of contaminants that would maintain the highest quality of the final product and therefore the highest revenue. Vose Risk Consulting developed an optimizing algorithm to run continuously at their plants using data on the contaminant levels of each pot (including sampling errors) during a production run to find the combination that maximized the value of the final product.

Transportation

EVALUATION OF A RAILWAY NETWORK

Problem and solution

The UK railway network was run by RailTrack plc, which went into administration after the Hatfield crash. Vose Risk Consulting assisted in assessing the value of the infrastructure in order for ownership to be taken over by the state-owned Network Rail.

PROJECT SCHEDULE RISK

Problem and solution

The Dublin Light Railway System (LUAS) is the light rail system for Dublin and its suburbs. The LUAS was constructed between 2000 and 2004 to relieve the city traffic problem.

TRANSPORTATION SIMULATION MODEL

Problem and solution

The client receives very regular delivery of explosive material by ship at its site on a narrow shared waterway. During delivery, movements of other shipping traffic are restricted by certain rules and regulations, resulting in delays and interruption to other shipping. The client was investigating the benefits of constructing an alternative berthing system designed to reduce the impact of their activities on other shipping. Vose Risk Consulting was asked to perform such an analysis and provide a visual representation of the model to help in their discussions with the other waterway users.

Business

FORECASTING DEMAND

Problem and solution

A market-leading manufacturer of construction material wished to estimate their worldwide sales over the next few years. Demand was known to be strongly driven by GDP growth by geographical region, and large changes in the competition to supply the demand were coming very soon. Using the company’s database and deep knowledge of the market, we worked with them to produce a defensible forecast that took into account the degree of correlation in GDP growth between regions, competing plants coming on line and the increased competitiveness of certain of the client’s plants due to planned improvements.

CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THEME PARKS

Problem and solution

A capital venture company needed to evaluate the uncertainty in cashflows from the planned purchase of a group of European theme parks. The short investment horizons of capital venture partners, the relatively close location of the parks, and the highly seasonal revenue streams made it important to evaluate the risk from poor weather during peak periods over the first couple of years of ownership. Vose was engaged to help build a risk analysis model which evaluated historic weather patterns, correlations between sites, the effect of weather on traffic during peak periods and the amount spent per ticket. The capital venture company was able to establish that their proposed plan had very small risk of being derailed by poor weather and they were able to secure the investment capital required.

Insurance

INSURANCE CLAIM ARBITRATION

Problem and solution

A FTSE 100 client purchased insurance to cover any significant drop in its expected cash flows. Ten years later when it was apparent that a claim would be made against the policy and the insurance company contested the validity of the model against which the policy was priced. Vose Risk Consulting was able to successfully defend the appropriateness of the original highly-technical model.