ModelRisk introduction course

The introductory course is aimed at participants with no experience of risk analysis modeling. Participants will gain an understanding of risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, and how to build a model, how to present and understand its results. We also explain the basic ideas of probability in a practical and intuitive way, and explain the most common mistakes people make in building models so you can be confident in what you do.

Day 1

• Course overview
• Introduction to risk analysis and how it can help you make better decisions
• Introduction to probability distributions
• Monte Carlo simulation with a simple example
• Understanding and using ModelRisk's graphical and statistical risk analysis results
• The key features of ModelRisk
• The View Function floating bar
• An explanation of the top 20 distributions used in risk analysis and when to use them
• Tools for fitting distributions to data + exercise
• Tools for expert estimation of uncertainty + exercise
• How to get better estimates

Day 2

• Modeling uncertain time series (forecasts over several periods) + exercise
• Fitting time series to data + exercise
• An introduction to correlation + exercise
• Tools for modeling correlation + exercise
• Tools for estimating correlation from data + exercise
• Completion of more complex model covering all that has been learned + exercise
• ModelRisk's demo mode
• A quick look at what else ModelRisk can do
• Wrap up

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Computer requirements and deliverables

Participants will need a laptop with Windows XP or Vista, Excel 2003 or later, (optionally PowerPoint 2003 or later), and ModelRisk 3.0 or later already installed. A free 30-day demo copy of ModelRisk can de downloaded here. Participants receive a CD with all example models and the PowerPoint presentations, as well as a set of printed notes for the course.

Refreshments

Lunch, morning and afternoon coffee are provided.

Hours

Courses run from 9:00am to 5:30pm each day.