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Vose Software is delighted to announce the latest release of ModelRisk, the risk analysis and optimization add-in for Microsoft Excel. In ModelRisk 5.1 we have improved performance, made it easier to install and added many useful features that ensure ModelRisk remains by far the best software product in its class. If you haven't yet tried ModelRisk, download a free trial version here. If you use another risk analysis software product and think it's probably better, take a look at the Wikipedia comparison here. We're pretty sure you'll change your mind.

ModelRisk 5.1 offers the following new features:

Precision control functions
STD - PRO - IND

A common question people ask is how many samples to run in a Monte Carlo simulation model. The larger the number of samples, the more precisely the output distribution will be known. But how does one set the limit? To make it easier to answer this question, we have added a set of functions that allow the user to ensure that a Monte Carlo simulation has been run with a sufficient number of samples to make sure that a specific level of precision has been achieved.

With these new functions you can specify the precision required for a cell's mean, standard deviation, the cumulative probability for a specific value or a specific percentile.


Simulation Stop functionality
STD - PRO - IND

This function is used to stop a simulation run once a specified condition has been met. When used in conjunction with Precision Control functions described above the user can control the length of a simulation run so that it stops when the specified level of precision on statistics for one or more outputs have been achieved. It can also be used if you want to run a model until it generates a particular scenario.

We have added a special button for the VoseSimStop function on the ModelRisk Ribbon: which switches the functionality on/off.

Model freeze functionality
STD - PRO - IND

Sometimes people would like to see the ‘Base’ scenario of the Monte Carlo simulation model – scenario where all random variables are set to their Median values, because it makes it easier to track calculations and compare model versions. For this purpose we have added a new button on the ModelRisk Ribbon that allows removing randomness from the spreadsheet: . Switching the randomness ON/OFF triggers between random sampling from distributions (also Time Series, Copula functions, etc.) and reporting of the Median values.



New Time Series functions
PRO - IND

A set of new Time series models have been added:
  • GBMAJ - A Geometric Brownian Motion time series model with Asymmetric Jumps.
  • GBMVR - A Geometric Brownian Motion time series model with Reversion to a fixed value S
  • GBMAJVR - A Geometric Brownian Motion time series model with Asymmetric Jumps and Reversion to a fixed value S
All three Time Series models have a standard set of simulation and fitting functions and are available through the Time Series interface windows.


Windows 8 and Microsoft 2013 support
STD - PRO - IND

ModelRisk has been updated to run in the most recent operating system from Microsoft – Windows 8 and also the latest spreadsheet modeling environment from Microsoft Excel 2013 is now supported*


* System configuration Windows 8 x64bit + Excel 2013 x64bit is not yet supported. The support for this configuration will be released with the next software update.

Download your Trial Copy of ModelRisk or Update your current License

New user and users that are still working with an old Standard version of ModelRisk can download the software by clicking the button below. If you're an existing user with an active maintenance plan you can update to ModelRisk 5.1 by going to the "ModelRisk Help" tab in the ModelRisk Ribbon in Excel and select "Check for Updates".

If being able to analyze risk more precisely is valuable to you, switching to ModelRisk makes real sense. Send us an email to switch@vosesoftware.com, tell us what software you currently use, how many users you have and what problems you typically analyze, and we will put together a deal to get you up and running with ModelRisk that you will find hard to refuse.


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