Your First Model

This model is aimed at the risk analysis novice and introduces the very basics of building a Monte Carlo simulation model to get you started. In this model we want to know the total cost of building a house including uncertainty.

Click here to download "Your First Model"

Ebook on distributions

This ebook gives a very complete summary of the distributions used in risk analysis, an explanation of where and why they are used, some representative plots and the most useful descriptive formulae from a risk analysis viewpoint.

Click here to download your FREE ebook.

Distributions

In the example model we will evaluate the profitability of a new product release by looking at the net present value. We will insert some uncertainty using distributions. In this tutorial will look at different ways of inserting a distribution in the Excel spreadsheet.

Click here to view the Distributions tutorial

Correlation

Once the uncertainty is applied in the example model, we also want include a correlation pattern. We have chosen for non-symmetrical correlation that will be applied on the sales growth rate.

Click here to view the Correaltion tutorial

Marking inputs and outputs

Once the uncertainty is implemented, we have to mark these variables as model inputs. Since we are interested in the net present value we will mark this value as an output.

Click here to view the Marking inputs and outputs tutorial

Running a simulation

This tutorial will show you how to run a simulation once the input and output parameters are marked.

Click here to view the Running a simulation tutorial.

Results

Once the simulation has run, we can look at the simulation results. In this tutorial will look at different plots, graphs and tables. We will also handle the topic of saving the results.

Click here to view the Results tutorial.

Help file

Covering nearly 1100 topics on risk analysis and related functions, the ModelRisk help file is unique. In this tutorial we will guide you through the extensive help file so you can access it quickly from anywhere within ModelRisk.

Click here to view the Help file tutorial.