Techniques used (ModelRisk edition needed)

Aggregate moments

Directly calculating the moments of an aggregate distribution

Checking the accuracy of the Panjer or FFT aggregate algorithm.

VoseAggregateMoments

Basel II

Loan default.

Loss model.

Bounded random walk

Poisson counts

Sum of random number of random variables

Output statistics generation in spreadsheet.

Calculation of risk budget.

Modeling correlated (cascading) risk.

Modeling risk events.

Exercise in building a dynamic array.

Combining opinions of different experts.

VoseCombined

Exercise in building a dynamic array.

Contagious extreme value model and comparison with simulation.

Number of errors to achieve a success.

Sum of resources expended to achieve success.

Loss distribution for a number of policies with correlated aggregate loss distributions.

Modeling correlated risks.

Modeling two correlated variables using the envelope method.

Modeling correlation using a lookup table.

Fitting a normal copula.

Correlating with copulas.

A very simple project cost model.

Calculates the approximate sum of correlated random variables using a covariance matrix.

Modeling credit risk for a single portfolio.

Aggregate Monte Carlo

Aggregate FFT

Two ways of determining the distance between an individual and its nearest, or next nearest, etc. neighbour.

Constructing a Dirichlet distribution.

Numerical integration

A classical statistics method of estimating the mean and the standard deviation for Normal distribution when neither are known.

A classical statistics method of estimating the mean for Normal distribution when the distributions standard deviation is known.

A classical statistics method of estimating the standard deviation of a Normal distribution when the distributions mean is known.

Calculate the total worth of a retirement fund upon retirement.

Forecasting sales over time to a finite market.

Generating a Frechet distribution.

Bayesian inference

Informed prior

Hypergeometric sampling

Number of samples required in a random sampling of a population to obtain a particular minimum set.

Normal approximation to the NegBin

Simple project duration model.

Adding correlation in aggregate calculations

Correlating partial sums.

Adding correlation in aggregate calculations

Multivariate Normal copula

Adding correlation in aggregate calculations

Correlating partial sums using scaling variables.

Adding correlation in aggregate calculations

Aggregate FFT method

Illustrating an incorrect way to use the Beta distribution to model variability in a Binomial probability.

Sum of random number of random variables

Numerical integration

Insurance.

Hedging.

Jacknife

Jacknife analysis

Joint credit ratings

Credit ratings

Markov chain models

Lawyers

Comparing uncertain quantities.

Binomial estimation of p

Numerical integration

Leading indicator

Model a time series based on a relationship with a leading indicator variable.

Reliability of a set of components.

Modeling a Markov time series with time an integer > 1 unit with ModelRisk.

VoseMarkovMatrix

VoseMarkovSample

Exercise to allow you to try out various modeling techniques.

Multinomial method of performing a Markov Chain model.

Multinomial method of performing a Markov Chain model with time an integer > 1 unit.

Bayesian inference, estimating MTTF.

Constructing posterior distribution for simulation.

Construct a Multivariate Hypergeometric distribution.

New competitors

Model sales where market is divided with new entry competitors.

PERT distribution

New product sales

Exercise to allow you to try out various modeling techniques.

Number of random variables to reach a defined sum.

Capital allocation to cover operational risk under Basel II.

Multivariate aggregate FFT

Determination of extreme values for 10 000 independent random variables drawn from a Pareto(5,2) distribution.

Calculating (rather than simulating) the probability that a sum of random variables exceeds some target.

Poisson process with time log.

Sum of random number of random variables

Insurance claim size.

Poisson random walk with trend.

Forecasting Poisson sales with new competitor entering the market.

Poisson random walk with trend and seasonality.

Pólya regression model fitted to data and projected three years into the future.

Similar to Poisson series but with randomness in the  expected intensity

Calculating the premium of an insurance policy using four different principles

VosePrincipleEsscher

VosePrincipleEV

VosePrincipleRA

VosePrincipleStdev

Estimating combined risk from several risk events.

Probability of exceeding some threshold.

Numerical integration

Typical project schedule model.

Project schedule model.

Schedule risk modeled as additional duration.

Project schedule model.

Schedule risk modeled as alternative duration.

Time series with cyclical shock.

Exercise to allow you to try out various modeling techniques.

Exercise to allow you to try out various modeling techniques.

Correlation matrix

Real option evaluation.

Modeling impact of correlated risks.

VoseRiskEvent function.

Triangle distribution

PERT distribution

Using triangle distributions to estimate project cost.

Run-off calculation.

VoseRunoff

Run-off calculation.

VoseRunoff

Run-off calculation.

VoseRunoff

Model the sales over a period where it is known that there is a finite market for the product.

Modeling sales where there is an uncertain maximum to the number of sales.

Project schedule modeling with risks.

Simple project duration model.

Two ways of simulating a risk event with a random impact.

Model to determine the probability that stress on a component exceeds its strength, and therefore causes it to fail.

Modeling a parallel renewal process.

Extremes, Simulating probability.

Tractors

Poisson distribution

Transaction failures

Estimating total cost of Poisson failures at different rates. Note this is a VC/RS/US model.

Transition matrix large t

Markov chain models

Comparison of several uncertain binomial probabilities.

Numerical integration

Bayesian inference

Numerical integration

Hyperparameters

Constructing posterior

Bayesian inference

Numerical integration

Hyperparameters

Simulating posterior

VoseSumProduct

Part 1 of a simple example of a VC/RC/US model: randomness R only.

VOII

Binomial process

Poisson process

Simple MC simulation

Bayesian inference

Binomial probability estimate

Numerical integration

Graphical presentation of model