Variability is calculated, Randomness and Uncertainty are simulated (VC/RS/US model)

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The VC/RC/US model was used to illustrate how quickly the calculation method of assessing V and R can become very complex. We saw how the complexity of a VC/RC risk model  increases exponentially with additional elements. The equivalent VC/RS model, however, is still extremely simple because the complexity of a V/RS model increases only linearly with additional probability elements:

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The spreadsheet of this model is provided here: VC RS US - 1.

A VC/RS model does, however, increase exponentially with additional levels of variability:

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The spreadsheet of this model is provided here: VC RS US - 2.

Add another layer to the variability (say source of infection) and we need three dimensions, so ModelRisk/Excel would no longer be the preferred modeling environment.

See Also